Can’t Shut Eyes to Climate Change

, Thursday, February 09, 2012
Correspondent : Jayanta Basu
We have seen what had happened in Durban. What's your observation on Durban as a platform for environment negotiations?

I can only look at it from the point of view of the science of climate change. The reality is that science clearly tells us about the serious impact of climate change and the fact that sooner we take action, the greater the chance of avoiding, postponing and reducing its impact. That in view, the Intergovernmental Penal on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth assessment report had stated that if we wanted to stabilise the temperature increase between 2 and 2.4 degree Celsius (over the pre-industrialised era), then the emission of carbondioxide had to peak no later than 2015, i.e., if we wanted to do it at ‘least cost’. Delay in the peaking will involve much higher cost and greater climate change impact, which should avoid. I wish people in Durban had grappled with some of these issues; unfortunately, that did not happen.

During the Durban climate talks, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) came up with a report that mentioned that even if all countries kept their pledge of emission cut, there would be a gap of 6-11 gigatonne in carbondioxide emission as compared to the target to contain the temperature at 2 degree Celsius. Was it a case of politics winning over scientific requirement?

We (IPCC) also brought out a special report on extreme events and disasters recently, in which we showed that the poorest parts of the world were going to be vulnerable and, hence, most heavily affected. Some extreme events will become far more frequent and intense. Let's take heat wave. If nothing is done, then the phenomenon that occurs once in 20 years will increase to once in two years by the end of the century. That's serious. One example is what happened in Europe in 2003, when there was a heat wave and over 40,000 people died. It is a normal occurrence in our part of the world, but you can imagine how mortality and morbidity will increase if it became more frequent.

In the face of such strong evidence, politicians have unanimously chosen to come up with an agreement that hardly reflected the scientific concern. Is it time people looked beyond politicians to find a solution?

The answer lies in awareness of the public. If people realise the scientific reality, understand the issues involved, and then in a democracy they could ensure their leaders did what they expected them to do. The role of the media is also very important in spreading the information. The IPCC welcomes debate, but it should be objective. Let the public question what science is telling them, and on the basis of that they may demand action from their leaders, who will then have to deliver. I don't believe we have reached that stage yet.

In Durban, we saw a new global regime on emission cut being agreed upon, almost being bulldozed through by the European Union, which was nowhere in sight before the conference began. What you feel about the plan for an agreement in 2015 to legally mandate emission cut by 2020?

This is only a statement of intent. How the negotiations proceed and whether we get an agreement by 2015 is yet to be seen. But the guiding principles laid under the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change should remain unchanged.

Everybody is talking about the IPCC's fifth assessment report for review before taking a concrete position. What do you have to say?

That is something I do not fully understand. There is already enough information in the fourth assessment report. In fact, there has been a series of reports, giving even firmer and more robust information. What do we expect in the fifth assessment report that is already not in these reports? The fourth report itself was very clear. I wonder what they are trying to do.

What do you feel about India's role in Durban? It is also talking about the fifth report.

It has just become a chorus, everybody is talking about it… Yes, the fifth report is expected to have some details and new issues, probably a little more regional information, but in essence not a major leap from where we are currently. This reminds of the little anecdote about a courtier appreciating the emperor's new clothes, when actually he was naked. Everybody else present also started praising the attire. It's just that nobody wanted to be different.

India again raised the equity issue in Durban, after putting it on the backburner in Cancun and Copenhagen.

It is a reiteration of what UNFCCC has already stated in ‘common but differentiated responsibility’. But we should also not lose sight of the fact that it is a common responsibility, and every country should do whatever it possibly can, depending on its needs, capacity and ability.

 
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