Running Out of Time (k)

The Himachal Times (Dehradun) , Monday, November 28, 2011
Correspondent : Connie Hedegaard
When ministers and negotiators from all over the world gather in South Africa for the UN climate conference at the end of this month, it will be a crucial moment for advancing the international fight against climate change.

Some might ask: Can't we just wait a little and deal with the climate challenge when we have solved the debt crisis in Europe, when growth has picked up again? The answer is no. Floods in Thailand or droughts in Texas and the Horn of Africa are just some of the latest reminders that the climate challenge is as urgent as ever; climate change is worsening. The recent World Energy Outlook report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) was yet another clarion call: time is running out and the bill will increase many times over if we don't act now.

So what can we achieve in Durban? From media comments, one could get the impression that there is only one yardstick of success: getting developed countries to sign up to a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol to follow the first which ends in 2012.

Let me be clear: the EU supports the Kyoto Protocol. We have based our own legislation on its principles. We are the region with the most ambitious target under Kyoto - and we are meeting it. Actually, we are on course to over-achieve our target.

But the Kyoto Protocol is based on a sharp distinction between developed and developing countries and requires action only from the developed. Don't you think that the changes in the world economy over the last two decades are increasingly blurring this distinction?

Take Singapore and South Korea. They are strong export economies with competitive industries and impressive scores in the UN Human Development Index. Yet, in the Kyoto Protocol, they count as developing countries. Or take a dynamic emerging economy like Brazil. It has flourishing industries, huge natural resources and a significantly higher income per head than, for instance, Bulgaria or Romania.

The patterns of pollution are also challenging the distinction between developing and developed countries. According to the IEA, today's rise in CO2 pollution is mainly driven by coal-reliant emerging economies. And this trend will only increase. Until 2035, 90 per cent of the increase in energy demand will come from non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. If we look at China, for example, its energy-related emissions have tripled since 1990, making it the world's largest emitter. On average, a Chinese citizen now emits more than, for example, a Portuguese, a Swede, or a Hungarian. So the world simply cannot fight climate change effectively without China, India and other emerging economies committing. We all need to realise that green policies, development and economic growth go hand in hand.

This is not to say that the emerging economies are not doing anything at all. Take India for example; it is already planning towards emissions saving at low or even no cost by improving energy efficiency. India`s National Action Plan on Climate Change provides a firm basis on which to build the low-carbon strategy which it is currently developing. But emerging economies like India and China could easily be the leading economies in the next decade, giving rise to bigger responsibilities in the global arena on issues like climate change, for which they need to act decisively now.

Another challenge is that the US has not joined Kyoto - and never will - while Japan, Russia and Canada have made clear they have no intention of signing up for a second commitment period. In sum, this means that, if the EU was to take up a second Kyoto period with a few other developed economies, it might cover at most 16 per cent of global emissions, where the first Kyoto period covered around one-third of global emissions. How can this be labelled a success for the climate?

In other words, this one yardstick has no chance of keeping the temperature rise below 2°C (3.6°F), which the international community has recognised must be our common objective.

To have a chance of achieving this, what we actually need is a global framework for action by all major economies, deve-loped and developing alike - one that truly reflects the world of the 21st century in which all pledges have the same legal weight.

The EU is open to a second Kyoto commitment period on the condition that the environmental integrity of Kyoto is improved and Durban agrees on a clear roadmap and timeline for finalising this framework within the next few years, and applying it no later than 2020. A second Kyoto commitment period could serve as a transitional arrangement until 2020 in the context of this roadmap. For the EU, other key elements of the roadmap are that we agree that the outcome should be a legally binding instrument - for instance, a protocol. A final decision should be adopted no later than the end of 2015; that we agree that the new instrument will be firmly based on the elements set out in Bali and agreed in Cancun and will include and build on the essential elements of the Kyoto Protocol; and we agree on a final date of entry into force and application of this legal instrument no later than 2020.

I hope that all countries will show the political will and leader- ship needed to initiate such a process in Durban. In Copenhagen, leaders pledged to stay below the 2°C limit. Now the time has come to show they mean it.

 
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