Mr. Stern, author of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, maintains that if no global policy to cut carbon pollution is enacted, “we run the serious risk of a global war because it could result in billions of people (affected by climate change) to move from one place to another.”

“We need to give ourselves a 60 per cent chance of avoiding a warming of more than 20C, and radically cut the risk of a 40C rise, then global annual emissions need to peak within the next ten years and begin to fall steadily, at least halving by 2050,” said Mr. Stern.

But will this require the enactment of Kyoto Protocol (KP) 2 at the coming COP 17 meet? “Regarding the Kyoto Protocol, the negotiations will be between Europe and the developing countries since the US has not signed Kyoto 1. And given the present stage of electoral politics in the US, it is unlikely that the Democrats will want to raise the issue at present. I think that a modest form of Kyoto – it will be much less than what the world needs – can be worked out. Such a unified framework is better than nothing,” Mr. Stern explained.

Mr. Stern’s own view is that distinctions between rich and poor, between obligations and differentiated responsibility are blurring. Even the word “common” in common differentiated responsibility is witnessing a gradual reinterpretation, he claims.

“Six of the seven billion people in the planet live in the developing world and everything they do impacts the planet,” Mr. Stern added.

Commenting on his report published in 2006, he said, “The cost of inaction has proved to be much greater than the cost of action I underestimated the dangers of climate change because emissions are growing at a faster rate than was anticipated.”

Mr. Stern who is chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment at the London School of Economics spoke at a meeting organised by the Indian Chapter of the Club of Rome.