Remember the embarrassing controversy a few years ago about whether or not Himalayan glaciers are retreating due to global warming? Finally, the foundation for a thorough scientific study and monitoring has been laid, with the release of three key reports on the sidelines of the Durban climate change summit.
Prepared by scientists working with the Kathmandu-based International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) the reports have for the first time identified over 54,000 glaciers spread over 64,000 square kilometres of the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region, home to some of the world's highest peaks and the biggest storehouse of freshwater outside of the North and South Poles.
The reports clearly say that not enough study has been done on the snow and ice systems of this vast ecologically fragile system.
But it provides a snapshot of kind of changes that global warming is likely to cause in the coming decades. Within the HKH region lie the origins of 10 crucial river systems that provide life to an estimated 1.3 billion people. These rivers - Ganga, Brahmaputra, Indus, Amu Darya, Irrawaddy, Mekong, Salween, Tarim, Yangtze, and Yellow - flow through 10 nations.
This makes it a global warming hotspot- changes in temperature can lead to rapid and devastating changes in river water flows that would affect millions."Up until now, there has been complete uncertainty on the numbers and area of glaciers and the present status of their environmental conditions in the region. This research give us a baseline from which to measure the potential impact of climate change," said Basanta Shrestha from ICIMOD.
One of the report points out that only 10 glacier systems have been thoroughly studied till date. So, information is patchy and incomplete. "Glaciers in the central and eastern Himalayas are shrinking, while changes in the western Himalayas and Karakoram are more uncertain," says the report 'Climate Change in Hindu-Kush Himalayas'. Based on data collected by the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment, Chandigarh, the report says that average winter temperature in the Indian part of the region increased by 0.6 to 1.3 degrees celsius between 1975 and 2006.
Besides this, there were other clear signs of warming: the number of warmer days increased, the number of cold nights decreased, there was more rain and less snowfall and consecutive number of dry days went up while wet days went down. Latest studies show that river water flows are likely to be affected in much more complex ways than earlier imagined.
While increasing temperature will cause snow and glaciers to dry up causing less water in the rivers 40-50 years into the future, this would be swamped by the much higher increase in monsoon rains in central and eastern Himalayas.
The ICIMOD reports indicate that much more research is needed to fully understand these dynamics.
The reports also spell out a complex struggle for the over 25,000 species of plants and animals that inhabit the HRH region.
As temperatures rise, all species will try to move upwards to cooler locations. This will spell doom for summit species- inhabiting the topmost levels-like the brown oak.With a 1 degree rise, almost 40 per cent cover of this common tree will be wiped out.
