India will witness a sharp dip in rice and wheat production, malaria will spread across the country and drought will become more common as a consequence of climate change in the next few decades.
These are some of the findings of a three-year, £4,50,000 Indo-UK study on the impacts of climate change, results of which were released here on Thursday which coincides with the visit of British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Union Minister of Environment and Forests A Raja and U K Minister of State for Trade, Ian Pearson released the results.
Researchers found that malaria could rise in areas that are already prone to the disease, and could spread into new regions because with the possibility of a steady rise in temperature, the transmission window for malaria is also likely to increase.
For most vectors of malaria, the temperature range of 20–30 degrees Celsius is optimal for development and transmission.
Also, a relative humidity higher than 55 per cent is optimal for vector longevity.
Analysis indicate the maximum incidence occurs in June, July and August when relative humidity is in the range of 60-80 per cent and temperatures range between 25-30 degrees Celsius.
The study solely funded by the UK through its Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs found that temperatures were likely to rise in the next few decades, leading to a reduction in wheat and rice yields in India.
While rainfall is predicted to rise in some regions, periods of drought are expected to become longer in others, leading to changes in forestry and vegetation.
The warming is projected to be widespread and more pronounced over northern India where the temperatures are to increase by three to four degrees Celsius towards the end of 21st century.
