Temperature is expected to rise by 2030. But there will also likely be greater climatic variations across the state--which means different regions will have different experiences.

Northern Maharashtra is projected to see many more extreme rainfall events, while Marathwada may see a rise in dry spells. Average temperatures could go up the most in parts of Vidarbha and Marathwada. But parts of the Konkan, including Mumbai, are likely to see the greatest increase in minimum temperatures.

These projections are part of a climate study commissioned by the state government in 2010 and submitted by TERI in 2014 but only recently made public. Climate modelling was done in collaboration with the UK Met Office to predict temperature and rainfall for 2030, 2050 and 2070 compared to 1970-2000.

Hot days, warm nights

The analysis projects that annual mean temperature will go up by more than one degree Celsius across the state by 2030, with the western parts of Vidarbha, northern Maharashtra--includes Nashik, Dhule and Nandurbar--and Marathwada seeing the biggest increase.

In these regions, annual mean temperatures could go up by as much as 1.4 1.6°C compared to increases of 1-1.2°C in the Konkan and Pune regions. Maximum temperature increases follow a similar geo graphical pattern.

On the other hand, south-west and north Maharashtra will see some of the big gest increases in minimum temperatures. That means that south Konkan, as well as Mumbai, Thane, and parts of Na shik, will have noticeably warmer nights in the near future.

The study predicts that minimum temperatures will rise more than maximum, shrinking the distinction between day and night. This closing gap is significant because it leaves less time for the land to cool down, says SuruchiBhadwal, associate director of the earth science and climate change division at TERI, New Delhi.

"Usually, because land temperatures cool off in the night, it takes a certain amount of time in the mornings for temperatures to go up again. Now it will take less time and temperatures will go up further," she says. This cycle of warming will be especially painful for cities like Mumbai where concrete development and lack of green cover boosts local temperatures further. Demand for electricity will likely increase--life will get harder for those who have no recourse to fans or ACs.

Winter is also warming up, notwithstanding cold spells. "So there's no break from summer to winter," notes Bhadwal.

In coastal districts, as well as parts of Vidarbha, humidity could make things worse. These areas score worse on the heat index, which combines temperature and humidity.

In the longer term, temperatures will rise even more, the study predicts, with mean temperatures touching a 3°C rise by 2070 in large parts of the state. In some areas like Vidarbha, minimum temperatures could rise by as much as 3.5°C by 2070.

However, researchers caution that longer term scenarios are very difficult to predict.

Spells of intense rain

The number of extremely low rainfall days is projected to rise most sharply in south-central Maharashtra, ie parts of Pune division and Marathwada. Storing water will be more important in these areas to tide over the dry days.

But there will be an overall increase in monsoon rainfall in parts of north and northeastern Maharashtra (Amravati and Nashik divisions). But much of this increase seems likely to be in short, intense bursts. The number of extreme rainfall days (calculated as rainfall intensity 99% higher than the baseline period) is predicted to increase across the state, especially in northern Maharashtra, including Jalgaon, Dhule and Nashik, as well as Akola and parts of Aurangabad.

Mumbai, Thane and Sindhudurg might see relatively smaller rises in extreme rainfall events--a 10% increase, say, compared to 30% in Nandurbar.

However, that doesn't mean Nandurbar will have more flooding than Mumbai or the rest of the Konkan, note researchers.Since the Konkan has high rainfall already, a little extra rain could be the difference between saturation and flooding.

In Mumbai, the flood risk may also be aggravated by a rise in sea levels, projected to be in the range of about 24cm to 66cm for this coastline by the end of the century.

On the other hand, areas like Dhule and Jalgaon may not have the resources or infrastructure to cope with extreme events.

Climatic projections have to be combined with local context, emphasizes Bhadwal, to understand their effects on the ground. "These projections give us a general picture of change, but local topographical features and other factors shape the local outcomes, including the capacity of a place to cope with change," she said.