The projection could be catastrophic considering that the global temperature rise expected, if the Paris climate agreement is implemented fully, is three degrees Celsius by turn of the century. Without any intervention, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected the temperature rise to be around 5 degree Celsius by 2100.

The study done by Pune- based Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for MP government says that the average temperature in the state may rise up to 5 degrees Celsius by 2080, adversely impacting rainfall cycle, agriculture output and health, climate change experts said, quoting simulation studies on Wednesday.

Climate change patterns will begin showing prominently in 2020s

What’s more worrying is that the climate change patterns will begin showing prominently in 2020s with the average temperature rising by up to 1.5 degrees Celsius and monsoon drastically shrinking to some days of torrential rain spell by 2050, disrupting agriculture cycles in its effect, experts said, adding the state might have to plan accordingly to combat the fallout.

A comprehensive study is published as the ‘Climate Change in Madhya Pradesh : A Compendium of Expert Views’, by MP’s State Knowledge Management Centre on Climate Change, which comes under Environmental Planning and Coordination organization (EPCO). MP coordinator for State Knowledge Management Centre on Climate Change Lokendra Thakkar said the research paper ‘Contemporary Climate Change Models and Projections for Madhya Pradesh’ has been authored by scientists Ashwini Kulkarni and Savita Patwardhan from Pune’s Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

Mean seasonal rainfall may increase by 5-20% towards middle of century

Talking to HT over phone, Kulkarni said, “During 2020s, there will not be much change in seasonal rainfall. However towards the middle of the century, the mean seasonal rainfall may increase by 5-20% and towards the end of the century, it may increase by around 20- 40%.”

Kulkarni said climate change couldn’t be stopped but its impact could be minimised to some extent. “MP, the country’s second largest state should be concerned about the impacts of climate change as 4.5 crore people depend on agriculture here. The state is very susceptible to climate change. Policymakers have to take initiatives to adapt to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and also allied sectors, like water resources, forests and human health in the state.”.

How global warming may impact state

MP’s 31% area is forest land. The climate change may impact the distribution and composition of the forests

MP has 10 rivers, which are at the mercy of rainfall. The reduction in stream run-off will adversely affect the irrigation and hydropower projects

70% of the rural population in MP is engaged in agriculture, horticulture and other sectors, like fisheries, dairy and animal husbandry. Changing climate may affect the crop production adversely

Increased intensity of heat and cold waves may affect human health.

Main climate change projections for MP

The rainfall may increase by 5% to 20% towards 2050s and up to 40% towards 2080s.

The annual average surface temperature will rise by 1-2 degrees, up to 3 degrees and up to 5 degrees towards 2020s, 2050s and 2080s respectively

The number of rainy days may come down, but may be more intense in future

There will be more warming in minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures

The warming seems to be projected more in the night time temperatures than the day time. This may have adverse effect on the crop production, especially the rice.

(Source: Research paper ‘Contemporary Climate Change Models and Projections for MP by scientists Ashwini Kulkarni and Savita Patwardhan)