In fact, Bhutan’s Phipsu Wildlife Sanctuary is, ironically, providing cover to not only stray tigers but to lax forest management that has ensured continued grazing, felling and poaching.

The signs of vanishing tigers are obvious here. Leopards roam fearlessly with the confidence of the top predator in a tiger-free territory. Big cattle graze away deep inside the forest.

The official tiger count has been hovering around 30 since it leapfrogged to 33 from 15 during 1985-1989. Last year, Field Director L G Lepcha brought down the official number to 27. “I know there are few tigers here. But I can’t bring it down at one go. So I decided to gradually cut down to a more realistic figure,” he told The Indian Express. After much prodding, he admitted: “I will be happy if we can establish the presence of about ten.”

A few months ago, when experts began doubting if there were any tigers left in Buxa, West Bengal Forest Minister Jogesh Burman was quite vocal: “We have enough tigers here...Wait till the 2005 census and you will have the truth.” Initial reports after the census ended last week do not justify the Minister’s confidence:

• During the last census in April 2005, Deputy Field Director (West) Rajeev Sharma claimed that pugmarks pointing to more than double the official tiger count of 27 were recorded. This year, only four.

• If pre-monsoon hard soil is blamed for fewer pugmarks this time, there is no explanation why other evidence like scat (tiger droppings) is also rare. Just five “scat samples,” one scratch mark, an old kill and a dubious claim of sighting “by some villager” complete the list of evidence found over three days.

• For Lepcha, Bhutan is ideal cover. “Buxa’s tigers may have migrated there. We don’t have any figures from Bhutan to check this out,” he said.

• Forest staff can vouch for only four tigers and a sub-adult. Of these, one female was apparently missing during the census. There is also talk of a tiger at Nimati.

• Lepcha admits that the 340 sq km of Reserve Forest — about 45 per cent of the total reserve area — is “highly disturbed” and no tiger is expected there.

• Several villagers The Indian Express spoke to confirm that sightings are rare. “Earlier, we lost cows almost daily but over the last six-seven years, there is hardly any big kill,” said Biren Maji at Bhutanbasti. His neighbour Nanki Koiri proudly shows off a goat that survived a leopard attack the previous day. “At least our cows are safe now,” she said.

• Five camps of Sashastra Seema Bal were set up two years ago to fight insurgents. “Elephants are there. Leopards are there. But we can’t say anything about tigers.” said Inspector THBK Singh at Santlabari camp. “Forest staff told you about 30 tigers? Go find one,” said Lance Naik A K Dey.

There are 70 tea gardens adjacent to the reserve and labourers hunt almost at will. Given a three-hour notice, residents of these settlements can serve fresh deer meat.

There are about 10,000 people in 37 forest villages inside the reserve. In the absence of other livelihood options, felling is rampant. Huge grazing load only compounds the crisis.

“Barring the core of the core, protection is negligible and the timber mafia know our patrolling schedule. Due to routine poaching, even the number of Sambars is dipping,” said one of the forest staff who has been around for 25 years. Since 1996, there has been no fresh recruitment.

Dy FD Sharma has been here since 2004. No wonder, he refuses to even hear about the numbers. “Our men have found some evidence. We may find more during the herbivore survey. At least we know tigers are here,” he said. His counterpart in the east division, Dy FD Shubhonkar Sengupta took charge barely two weeks ago and is more frank: “We know numbers are exaggerated here. Hopefully we will set it right this year. Some good management practices have been given up here and must be reintroduced. Give me a little time.” Given the mess he is in, he will also need a little luck.