Precarious irreversibility of climate change

The Hindu Business Line , Saturday, February 11, 2006
Correspondent : Staff Reporter
ANTARCTICA. Earth's `highest, windiest, coldest, and driest landmass.' Its 99.7 per cent of surface is covered by a vast ice sheet with an average thickness of about 2 km. "Were it to melt, global sea level would rise about 57 metres." Thus cautions a 406-page book titled, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, and released on January 30 by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) of the UK (www.defra.gov.uk).

The book has been edited by Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, and `typeset by Charon Tec Ltd, Chennai, India.' While the latter fact should warm the hearts of the publishing outsourcing industry, the dismal news is that "Sea level is reported to have risen during the 20th century by between 1 and 2 mm per year and model predictions suggest the rise in global-mean sea level during the 21st century is likely to be in the range of 9-88 cm." The book has more than 40 chapters, summarising the proceedings of `The International Symposium on Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (ADCC),' held a year ago; the symposium drew about 200 participants from 30 countries.

To set the tone, the UK Prime Minister, Tony Blair, declares in his Foreword to the book that climate change is the world's greatest environmental challenge. The first chapter is by Rajendra Pachauri, on `Avoiding dangerous climate change'. He cites Norman Myers, for the ominous forecast of "150 million environmental refugees by the year 2050". What follow are chapters on the Antarctic ice sheet, Greenland ice sheet, risk of a collapse of the `Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation', and the impact of increased atmospheric CO{-2} on oceanic pH and the marine ecosystem.

Whole sections have been devoted to broad themes such as perspectives on dangerous impacts, vulnerabilities of ecosystems and biodiversity, emission pathways, and technological options. The final chapter, titled `the technology of two degrees,' looks at the implications of limiting the change in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to two degrees Celsius (2{+0}C) relative to pre-industrial temperatures. "While the technical and economic challenges of the emissions trajectory between 2005 and 2050 are daunting under the assumption of a 2.5{+0}C climate sensitivity, they are far more modest than the challenges of the 2050 to 2095 period," postulates the report. By 2095, global population would have reached close to 10 billion; global GDP increased from $30 trillion (2002) to more than $250 trillion; and the global energy demand risen from about "375 exajoules per year (EJ/y) in 1990 to more than 1200 EJ/y by 2095." No joyous news, but there's more.

 
SOURCE : The Hindu Business Line, Saturday, February 11, 2006
 


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