This is no doomsday prediction. This is the essence of what Rob Upstill-Goddard of the University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom, said while summarising what he learnt during his 15-year study of the effect of anthropogenic and natural events that cause global warming. He spoke to Swahilya on the future climate changes after meeting students at a `Meet the Scientist' programme, organised by the British Council and the Tamil Nadu Science and Technology Centre.

The global oil lobby denies that human activity can cause global warming. "... I don't want to comment on who is behind such research, but there is now an increased awareness on global warming."

He strongly believes that this awareness can cause a change. As individuals, one could think of conserving resources. "Britain is now trying to recycle its plastic, glass and aluminium," he says. The answer lies in alternative energy and bio-fuels and recycling of wastes.

History of global warming

Tracing the history of global warming, he explains that the earth was a snowball two billion years ago when the sun's energy was a lot lower.

There seems to be a clear link between the rising global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide, which has remained high. The six warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997. The thickness of the sea ice in the Arctic has come down. Consequent to the loss of the Greenland ice sheet, the sea level has risen by about seven metres. This would eventually cut off transportation of heat through the oceans.

With the United States topping the list of countries with high industrial and fuel emission, followed by the European Union, China, Russia, Japan and India, the difference in sea level change and emissions will remain small even with the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. But, it is a small step in the right direction, he says.

He got interested in studying the interactions between oceans and the atmosphere "just by pure luck," as he worked with scientists working with climate change. He has been associated with Anna University's Institute of Ocean Management for the past three years.

Need for more data

There is still need for more data to monitor methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide emissions by scientists all over the world, he says. "There are people who think global warming is nonsense, but I think the evidence for anthropogenic global warming is real. The process is so complicated and we need more people making these measurements to inform governments," says the professor.

With a projected increase in the use of fuel from 2007 and lack of data on the benefits or otherwise of processes such as carbon sequestration, there is urgent need to gear up to face the challenges of global warming, says Dr. Upstill-Goddard.