The study concedes that the Syrian uprising has many complex roots—including corrupt leadership, massive population growth, inequality and the government’s inability to curb human suffering—but climate change made the nation more vulnerable to unrest. Natural variability in the region—always prone to dry spells—couldn’t explain the extent of the drought, the study found. But it was “two to three times more likely that you can have a drought this severe” when researchers took into account the effects of both natural cycles and the “forcing” of additional carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere in modern industrial times. The three-year drought began in the early winter of 2006, which along with poor water management and economic policies, led to the displacement of 1.5 million rural people to crowded western cities.

The Syrian case study is a call for factoring in environmental factors—which greatly determine the economic conditions of a community—and addressing problems arising out of them rather than overlooking them even as we overstress the political or ideological battles that foreground them. It also underlines the need for a politics, both globally and locally, that is more amenable to the environment.