•

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Lima has managed to put out a document declaring the intent to reach an international agreement at the Paris summit this time next year on declaring the targets of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A draft text has also been annexed to the Lima declaration which will be negotiated and amendments made in the time left before the Paris meeting. The 11-day Lima conference, where officials from 196 countries worked through tortuously complicated clauses acceptable to all with regard to what each country can promise to do, and follow up on the plan is a move forward indeed. One of the key paragraphs in the Lima document underscores “its commitment to reaching an ambitious agreement in 2015 that reflects the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances...”

Until now, the UNFCCC and the climate change lobbyists were keen to hammer out a common agreement which all the countries had to accept. The UN negotiators have realised that the prospective agreement will have to take note of the differences in impact of climate change in each country and the capacity of each to cope with that change. It is recognised that the economically developed and rich countries will have to provide financial and technological assistance to the undeveloped and poorer countries to shift to ways of economic development which will also curb green house gas emissions. The ambitious target is to contain the temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius to 1.5 degrees Celsius of the pre-industrial levels.

It would be futile to argue about the issue of climate change per se despite the fact that data is still inadequate and it will be difficult to make reliable and reasonable inferences. But the change in thinking towards the means of economic development involving fossil fuels will lead to technological changes to tap alternative or non-conventional energy sources. This will boost research and development, it will give rise to new technologies and it could lead to a green industrial revolution, which at the moment appears to be nothing more than an oxymoron. Looking at the long term trends of global economic activity, it appears that the old industrial revolutions — there has been more than one in the last 200 years — have run their course, and they cannot promise endless sustainable growth. There is need for a radical break with industrial civilisation as we know it. The fear of climate apocalypse is a catalyst to shape future economic activity.

It took the United Nations 40 years, starting with the UN Conference on Environment in Stockholm in 1972, to arrive at the point when everyone is agreed that it is time to make a concerted effort to combat climate change. It can be expected that by 2020 all the countries will get down to the task of dealing with the challenges of climate change, and this in turn will trigger technology innovations. But there will be enough disagreements and much haggling as to what each country will do on its own and what it expects other countries to do.

It is necessary to guard against undue optimism. There is no agreement on the table as yet. What is being circulated to the governments is the draft text of an agreement. It is also not certain whether the agrement will be made a protocol or a legally binding document at Paris next year. It will not however remain as vague and undefined as the Millennium Development Goals because there is a certain urgency born out of anxiety in the Western countries that this is a do-or-die issue.