The US and China announced a historic and sub-par bilateral pact on climate change ahead of the UN negotiations that will lead to a new global agreement in 2015 in Paris. The US announced it would reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 24-26 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025, and China announced it would ensure its emissions peak by around 2030.
Together, historically the largest emitter of GHG gases and the current biggest emitter China set an extremely low benchmark for other countries to follow under the Paris agreement. The move drained out hope of a 2015 climate agreement and consequent commitments from countries at Paris that could keep the global temperature rise below 2 degree Celsius.
But, on the flip side, it eased the pressure on India, a far smaller emitter than the US and China, to take on any onerous new commitments in the short run. While India is expected to also put up a domestically decided target soon, it will now have the example of the two countries to also commit to a low-range target. The target could be in terms of only a slower rate of growth of emission intensity or accompanied by a long-off target year for peaking when India’s emissions would peak — a year much beyond that China has announced.
For the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, still mulling the ideas advocated by its newly appointed minister, Suresh Prabhu to distance India from China and bring it closer to the West, fell apart with the announcement. The joint declaration showed that there were several major issues in the climate negotiations where China, India and the US actually saw eye to eye in aiming to protect their short-term economic interests though not necessarily fighting a robust fight to slow down climate change.
The higher end of the US target of cutting emissions by 26 cent cut by 2025 below 2005 levels is so low that it already has environmentalists up in arms. It translates to a mere 13.88 cent cut reduction below 1990 levels by 2025. The ball for a low-hanging fruit had been set in place earlier by EU announcing that it would only take a 40 per cent cut to its emissions below 1990 levels by 2030, of which it has already achieved around 20 per cent reduction. The US target fell even lower on relative terms to the EU targets. Its new target is less than half of that the EU has promised to take by 2030. Both the EU and the US promised targets are far below the upper range for emission cuts that the UN climate panel had set at 40 per cent four years ago and has now revised upwards.
