KOLKATA : If current trends of vehicle population, fuel and emission standards persist, PM 2.5 emissions will increase by a factor of three, and those of NOx will increase by a factor of five, warns a new report by The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri), University of California, San Diego (UCSD) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB). The transport sector contributes about 15-50% of PM 2.5 emissions in cities, and is a dominant contributor to NOx emissions.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that of the 67 risk factors studied in their Global Burden of Disease project, outdoor air pollution was ranked fifth in mortality and seventh in health burden in India, contributing to over 627,000 deaths and 17.7 million healthy years of life lost in 2010.

The new report titled 'Options to reduce road transport pollution in India' establishes the scientific basis for reducing emissions, the technologies available, and governance issues that need to be urgently addressed to improve air quality in Indian cities.

"We should go beyond technological transfers and evolve pathways for pollution control as there are co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gases and reducing the health burden. We need to develop frameworks to mobilize resources and invest in technological innovations. This report will provide intellectual inputs to formulate specific pollution control models for states, and this will require the intervention of not just the government, but all stakeholders," said Teri director general R K Pachauri.

In 1991, there were 20 million vehicles in India. The number had skyrocketed to 140 million in 2011, and by 2030, vehicle population is expected to reach 400 million. "We need multiple strategies to bring regulatory agencies and the regulated communities together and provide incentives to reduce the pollution load," felt CARB chairman Mary Nichols.

Vehicular emissions contribute to particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM 2.5) and to Nitrogen oxides, NO and NO2 (NOx). NOx in turn leads to the production of ozone. PM2.5 is the dominant contributor to premature deaths and numerous other illnesses, followed by ozone and NOx, and these are the major contributors to agricultural impacts, says the report.

According to V Ramanathan, distinguished professor of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, USCD: "Tacklingair pollution may seem a complex problem, but California has demonstrated how drastic reductions in air pollution can be achieved. We simply cannot ignore the linkages and the multi-dimensional impacts of air pollution - for instance, ozone pollution leads to massive crop losses."

Without affecting its economic growth, California has cut down its emissions drastically. In the 1960s, California had one of the highest air pollution levels in the world and this triggered a public health outrage. Over the past 40-50 years, California has succeeded in reducing the levels of all air pollutions by 75-90% though a series of measures. In particular, it has significantly reduced black carbon and particulate pollutants from vehicles.

On the other hand, 80% cities in India which have comparatively much fewer vehicles have exceeded the ambient air quality standards prescribed by the Centre. And this is worsening air quality and leading to a plethora of health problems. There is mounting evidence now to show that the transport sector is largely responsible for the increase in the concentrations of particulate pollutants.

In an attempt to replicate the best practices, UCSD, CARB and Teri launched a programme - India California Air Pollution Mitigation Programme (ICAMP) - in 2013, to learn from air pollution control measures implemented in California to mitigate vehicular emissions and improve air quality in Indian cities. Based on research and dialogues between Indian and Californian experts, the project partners have now come up with this new report.

The report makes 12 specific recommendations for immediate action:

Building and monitoring information; Upgrading fuel quality; Tightening vehicle emission standards; Upgrading in-use testing (inspection and enforcement); Fostering new engine management technology; Encouraging fleet modernization; Shifting transportation to other modes; Promoting non-motorized means of transport (walking and cycling); Increasing distribution of electric and hybrid vehicles; Using microgrids for electric and hybrid vehicles; Improving integrated land-use planning; and, Increasing cooperation between the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the Union and State Governments in India.