PUNE: If you live in Hadapsar, Shivajinagar or Alandi and suffer from asthma or some other respiratory disease, you may consider going out of town as these areas are likely to witness the highest rise in pollution levels during Diwali celebrations, stated the System Of Air Quality Forecasting And Research (SAFAR) at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).
"According to our model, the situation will be worst in Hadapsar this Diwali where the PM 2.5 levels are likely to shoot over 100 micro grams per cubic meter and PM 10 levels will cross 200. Pollution levels at Shivajinagar and Alandi will also remain high," said Neha Parkhi, programme officer at SAFAR.
While pollution levels at nine observation points in the city are likely to cross the permissible 100 micro grams per cubic meter for PM 10, Manjri and Nigdi on the city's outskirts are likely to have the least pollution levels, she added.
"Within the city also wind directions can play an important role. For instance the level of pollutants in Lohegaon is much higher than last year while certain areas like Shivajinagar may witness a drop in certain pollutants. This is because the winds may blow the pollutants along to areas that may witness bursting of more crackers," explained IITM scientist Gufran Beig, the programme director of SAFAR.
The bursting of firecrackers results in an increase of all pollutants, but the ones that are of the greatest concern for the city are particulate matter - particles suspended in the air. There are two indicators - PM 10 and PM 2.5 - particles less than 10 microns in size and those less than 2.5 microns in size respectively. Of these, the finer particles (PM 2.5) can penetrate through the gaseous exchange region of the lungs and enter the bloodstream and affect other organs.
Beig said the highly dangerous PM 2.5 levels are likely to increase by 40-50% across the city while PM 10 levels are likely to increase by 30-40%. "However, if there is a 20-25% reduction in bursting of firecrackers, it could result in a significant reduction in pollution levels," he added.
Scientists at SAFAR have used their observations of emission levels from last year's Diwali and combined the data with the predictions of weather-related factors such as temperature and winds to make the forecast. Pune is the second city in India after Delhi where these predictions have been made as a part of the SAFAR programme.
AreaNov 4, 2013 (observations)Oct 24, 2014 (predictions)
Pashan57.3644.95
Shivajinagar76.6667.70
Lohegaon41.0077.22
Alandi51.3477.88
Katraj70.8774.96
Hadapsar52.11117.28
Bhosari48.2864.57
Nigdi45.1560.86
Manjri42.7629.50
According to an Air Quality Index (AQI) developed by IITM scientists, PM 10 levels will cross permissible limits in all parts of the city
Air quality will remain moderate for most areas. At this level vulnerable people like children, asthmatics and senior citizens will experience respiratory discomfort
In Hadapsar, Shivajinagar and Alandi air will be of poor quality. At this level, all people can experience some discomfort
"What is of greatest concern is the rise in PM 2.5 levels in the city. These are the particles that pose the greatest threat to our health as they can penetrate deep into the lungs, crossover and enter the bloodstream
- Gufran Beig, programme director SAFAR
