Large multinational corporations could develop their own highly capable security forces. Criminals and terrorists will have access to increasingly cheap unmanned drones and space satellites. Sophisticated environmental warfare will spread plant and human diseases by insects.
These are among an array of dire warnings spelt out in a study by a Ministry of Defence think tank exploring potential threats to security that might emerge by the middle of the century.
The study, Global Strategic Trends — Out to 2045, contains fresh warnings about the effects of climate change, the growth of sprawling urban centres and pressure on natural resources, notably water. It paints a picture of a world in which the authority of states diminishes in the face of multinational companies, and national loyalties are weakened by increasing migration.
Plausible outcomes
Rear Admiral John Kingwell, director of the MoD’s Concepts and Doctrine Centre, which carried out the study, said it did not seek to predict the future and did not reflect official government policy. However, he said it described plausible outcomes on the basis of rigorous analysis of existing trends.
“The pace and breadth of technological advancements will change our perception of our role in the workplace, reveal new opportunities for health advances, and facilitate the deepening of global communications,” he said.
Rise of individualism
“But as access to technology increases, we will face new risks. In the West in particular, a rise of individualism and ... a growing sense of disconnection from long-established governing structures will challenge traditional systems.”
The study says the influence of non-State actors such as multinational corporations is likely to increase at the expense of nation States, and private companies may develop “highly capable security forces”.
Cheaper and more sophisticated drones will mean criminal and terrorist groups are likely to find it easier to “gain, hold and use unmanned capabilities”.
Expansion of alternative currencies
Internal terrorist threats are likely to continue in the Middle East and North Africa, while the expansion of alternative currencies may make it easier for criminals and terrorist groups to transfer funds between jurisdictions, the study says.
“As the cost of sequencing an individual’s DNA continues to fall, targeting an individual using their DNA may be possible by 2045,” the study adds.
“We could also see sophisticated environmental warfare capable of spreading plant and human disease by insects or insect-machine hybrids.”
— © Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2014
But as access to technology increases, we will face new risks. In the west in particular, a rise of individualism and ... a growing sense of disconnection from long-established governing structures will challenge traditional systems
