NEW DELHI: There is a slight breather from the usually terrible air pollution scenario in Delhi. Even though we might be emitting as many or more pollutants this year, pollution levels in the next few days are likely to be lower than in 2012, thanks to the prevailing wind pattern.

The System of Air quality Forecasting and Research project, set up in Delhi to monitor weather and pollution, has indicated that although Delhi is going to witness hazy and polluted conditions during the next few days, pollution content in the haze will be relatively less than compared to

last year. In fact, even if the same amount of crackers as last year are burst in the capital this Diwali, compared to last year, particulate matter levels will touch dangerous levels of around 600 micrograms per cubic meter but still be less than levels recorded in 2012. Major areas for increased pollution have been identified as Pusa, Patel Nagar, Rajendra Nagar and Delhi University.

"Last year we witnessed an unusual wind phenomenon. Between October 22 and 27, northwest India saw northerly winds blowing over the region, which brought along particulate matter from biomass burning in Punjab and Haryana. While this made 2012 one of the worst years for air pollution in Delhi, Diwali, came along in the second week of November, and made things worse. PM2.5 levels were averaging 600 mg/m3 and by Diwali they went up to 900 mg/m3. This year the levels have, so far, been in the range of 150-200 mg/m3," said Dr Gufran Beig of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.

SAFAR has indicated that pollution levels have started rising in Delhi with the approach of winter. levels of PM2.5 and 10 are showing a rapid rise but are not expected to touch levels similar to 2012 levels due to a favourable wind pattern.

"Pollution levels in Delhi are rising due to drop in temperature and presence of moisture in the atmosphere due to rain in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. At present the winds over northwest India are westerly and there are no indications of any system that will change them to northerly, which would allow pumping of huge biomass plumes from neighbouring states," said Beig.

Levels of PM2.5 started increasing in Delhi from around 60 mg/m3 on October 13 to reach 170 mg/m3 on October 27 which is considered "poor", said Dr Sunil Peshin, Scientist, IMD. This trend will continue for the next few days at least and touch a high of 220 mg/m3 which is considered "very poor". People with respiratory and heart diseases will be at risk due to the presence of tiny particles in the air.

SAFAR data has also shown that unlike 2012, there is a huge variability in air pollution levels within NCR, which is likely to continue until Diwali.