BANGALORE: The city has this year received heavy rain in a non-monsoon period, a first in 25 years. Weather experts predict that the whole of India will experience what Bangalore has: heavy to very heavy rain during non-monsoon months.
"The duration of the south-west monsoon has extended this year compared to the past few decades. The influence of forest degradation and other environmental effects on the rain pattern cannot be ruled out in the coming years,'' M R Ramesh Kumar, chief scientist at the National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, said.
Climate scientists say other states will have to be ready for cloudbursts and floods like those Uttarakhand witnessed in June this year.
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, has concluded that instances of heavy rain (more than 100mm a day) and very heavy rain (over 150mm a day) are increasing, while those of low and moderate rain (below 100mm a day) are on the decline.
R Krishnan, executive director of the Centre for Climate Change Research at the Pune institute, told TOI: "There are multiple factors affecting such changes in the rain pattern. There are external factors such as ocean dynamics and depression, in addition to man-made changes, which need to be analyzed properly. Climate change may not be the only reason."
M B Rajegowda, agro-meteorologist at the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, says increased urbanization is leading to the concentration of more people in selected locations. This, in turn, leads to an increase in temperature, causing heavy precipitation. Abnormal rain events are possible in such cases. This can also result in prolonged droughts in some other areas.
