The estimate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) revisits a blunder in its last overview that tarnished the group’s reputation when it warned that the glaciers could vanish by 2035. In a massive Fifth Assessment Report on climate impacts released in Yokohama, Japan, the IPCC said Himalayan glaciers would shrink by 45 per cent by 2100, if Earth’s average surface temperature rose by 1.8 degrees Celsius.

The effects of climate change are already visible across the world and it may hit India’s food security system with expected change in monsoon pattern, according to the report titled ‘Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability’. According to it, the impact could be “more severe” on India’s rice and maize production and evident in soyabean and maize production in the US. It said that trends like increase in air temperature and changes in monsoon are affecting the abundance and distribution of fisheries in the river Ganga and its fishery resources.

Highlighting the need for taking adaptation measures, the report said: “In India, the estimated countrywide agricultural loss in 2030 of over $7 billion, which will severely affect the income of 10 per cent of the population, could be cut by 80 per cent if cost-effective climate resilience measures are adopted.”

The report further said that changes in a number of climate variables, including an increase in air temperature, regional monsoon variation and a regional increase in incidence of severe storms, have led to changes in species composition in the Ganga and reduced the availability of fish spawn for aquaculture in the river.

It also talked about impact of global warming on livestock. “Higher temperature would lead to decline in dairy production, reduced animal weight gain, stress on reproduction, increased cost of production and lower food conversion efficiency in warm regions. Disease incidence among livestock is expected to be exacerbated.” it said.

The report concluded that responding to climate change involves making choices about risks in a changing world. The nature of the risks of climate change is increasingly clear, though climate change will also continue to produce surprises. The report identified vulnerable people, industries, and ecosystems. “Observed impacts of climate change have already affected agriculture, human health, ecosystems, water supplies, and people’s livelihood. The striking feature... is that they are occurring from the tropics to the poles... from the wealthiest countries to the poorest,” it said.