NEW DELHI: Monsoon rainfall, crucial for food production in India, is expected to intensify in the future and the rainy season is likely to be longer, according to the draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
A leaked draft of the first of three reports comprising the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report states while monsoon circulation is likely to weaken, monsoon precipitation is likely to increase by the end of the century. The draft also states that it "very likely" that the monsoon retreat dates will be delayed, resulting in lengthening of the monsoon season.
However, scientists say that existing climatic models are not able to make useful projection on the changes in monsoon pattern. As temperature rises, rainfall will increase, but it is not possible to accurately predict which part of the world will get the benefit of higher rainfall. Similarly while the possibility of extreme rainfall events is higher, it not possible as of now to determine where and how these will take place.
"None of the existing climate models are good enough to simulate the monsoons particularly the Indian monsoons. Therefore there is little by way of actionable items from the projections from these models. It therefore is not practical use to policy makers," said J Srinivasan of IISc Bangalore.
"As temperatures increase, rainfall will also increase, as will extreme rainfall events. However, it is not currently possible to quantify this increase," Srinivasan said.
Srinivasan, who has been part of the team working on the previous assessment reports of the IPCC, warns that while the monsoons are important for India, the focus should be on the "guaranteed heat surge" that will take place. He warns that the heat surge would counter benefits from increased rainfall.
"The real cause of concern for us in India is the guaranteed heat surge. if temperatures rise by by 3 to 4 degrees, the coastal areas will become difficult to live in. Crop yield particularly the winter crop will be affected," he said.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established by the United Nations and World Meteorological Organisation, is tasked with providing scientific guidance to governments across the world in developing policies to counter climate change. The IPCC is not a research organisation. Under the aegis of IPCC, scientists, researchers, think tanks, and not for profit organisations assess and process the work in the field of science relating to climate change.
