IEA suggests measure to control global temperature rise

The Times of India , Thursday, June 20, 2013
Correspondent : Urmi A Goswami
NEW DELHI: The rains may have cooled down north India, but global average temperature is set to rise by as much 4 degrees if urgent steps are not taken to address climate change. Bringing with it heat waves, untimely and unpredictable quantities of rain and other forms of extreme weather, which would wreck more havoc than the extra 40mm rainfall just did.

Science puts the acceptable global temperature rise at 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels to limit the harmful impact of climate change.

Analysts like Marion Vieweg, Bill Hare, Nick Hohne of Ecofys suggest that given the current levels of carbon emission, implementing all the measures that would limit emissions would still mean a "40% chance of warming exceeding 4 degrees centrigrade by 2100 and a 10% chance of it exceeding 5 degrees centrigrade in the same period." The best case is a warming of 3.8 degrees. All of it is way above the 2 degrees guardrail that science has identified, and which all governments have accepted as a goal as part of the UN-sponsored climate change negotiations.

The situation can still be salvaged. The International Energy Agency is of the view that measures can be adopted to ensure that the goal of limiting the earth's temperature rise to 2 degrees can be met. In its report, Redrawing the Energy Climate Map, the IEA states that global energy related carbon emissions increased by 1.4% to reach a historic high of 31.6 gigatonnes in 2012. of the total emissions, the non-OECD countries accounted for 60% of the emissions, up from 45% in 2000. In 2012, India's emissions grew by some 45 Mt of carbon dioxide, or 2.5%, this was mainly on account of coal. However, the rise in emissions was much lower than the previous year due to lower GDP growth and issues related to domestic coal production.

Given the co-relation between GDP and emission rates, the IEA recognises that India's emissions are related to the stage in economic development. And that while, India's per capita emissions has more than doubled it is still well below the global average.

The IEA has put forward a set of policy measures, which if adopted could help contain global temperature rise to 2 degrees at no net economic cost. These efforts include adopting specific energy efficiency measures, limiting construction and use of least efficient or sub critical coal fired power plants, minimising methane production from upstream oil and gas production and accelerating the phasing out of subsidies to fossil fuel consumption. "This would buy precious time while international climate negotiations continue towards the important Conference of Parties meeting in Paris in 2015 and the national policies necessary to implement an expected international agreement are put in place," the IEA report states.

The report suggests that India could avoid as much as 279 million tonnes of emission based on energy efficiency measures and more efficient power plants.

Unchecked climate change and rising global temperatures will mean that monsoon rainfall, the crucial input for food production in India, will fail more often over the next 150 years. This could mean a rainfall shortfall of anywhere between 40% to 70%. It could also mean untimely excess in rainfall, which would disrupt life, wreck havoc with food production and push up food prices

A study by Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research predicts that the monsoons could fail every fifth year between 2150 and 2200 unless governments act decisively to counter climate change. And even as Schewe-Levermann study predicts a dire future, the changing rainfall patterns, on account of global warming, is already being felt in developing countries like India.

 
SOURCE : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/iea-suggests-measure-to-control-global-temperature-rise/articleshow/20677526.cms
 


Back to pevious page



The NetworkAbout Us  |  Our Partners  |  Concepts   
Resources :  Databases  |  Publications  |  Media Guide  |  Suggested Links
Happenings :  News  |  Events  |  Opinion Polls  |  Case Studies
Contact :  Guest Book  |  FAQs |  Email Us