Any fines on the only two Indian airlines to fly to Europe will not be “imposed overnight”, said Isaac Valero-Ladron, EU spokesman for climate action commissioner Connie Hedegaard, by email.

Earlier this month, the European Commission (EC) had said that two Indian and eight Chinese airlines face fines totalling €2.4 million ($3.1 million) for not paying for their greenhouse gas emissions during flights within the bloc.

Mint reported 20 May that India will toughen its stand against the EC’s move to penalise airlines. AFP said China will not pay for carbon dioxide emissions by its airlines within Europe.

“We will now talk to the airlines, and their degree of responsiveness and collaboration will determine the next steps,” Valero-Ladron said.

He downplayed the prospect of a ban. “According to the EU legislation, exclusion of EU airports is the last possible resort only applicable to cases of persistent incompliance,” he said, adding that the fines will depend on the emissions, which need to be calculated.

Air India and Jet Airways have been told by the government not to submit any data to EU under the emissions trading scheme (ETS).

Any correspondence related to this is to be forwarded to the aviation ministry.

India has said that any move to fine the country’s airlines will be met by tit-for-tat action. “Our response is very clear; you do it, there will be retaliation,” said a senior government official, who declined to be named.

“The Indian government has planned a series of steps approved a year back for such eventualities,” he said. This has dissuaded the EU from attempting to ban Indian airlines, he said.

“At a time when the EU ETS itself is held in abeyance until completion of the Icao (International Civil Aviation Organization) process, pursuing this line of action by EU is a useless and ineffective provocation and will only do more harm to Europe than to India and China,” the official said. Icao is trying to frame an international agreement on greenhouse gas emissions by airlines, instead of blocs like EU taking unilateral action.

More European airlines fly to India than the other way around. Jet Airways, following an investment by Etihad Airways PJSC, is shifting its base from Brussels to Abu Dhabi. Air India plans to fly the fuel-efficient Boeing Dreamliner 787 on most European routes. It started using the 787 on the Delhi-London route this month.

India is prepared to counter with fines of its own, the stoppage of flying rights including overflights, said the government official cited above.

“And then it spills into a trade war and is unlikely to meet any international backing including from some sceptical members of EU,” the official said.

Former environment secretary Prodipto Ghosh expects EU will blink on the issue.

“The point is that in a very interdependent world, any country trying to take unilateral action cannot go against major trading partners like China, Japan, Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), the US, Brazil, South Africa and India,” said Ghosh, distinguished fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri). “India has made it very clear that the day EU tries to impose ETS, India will renegotiate bilaterals. India also has an option of putting a ban on imports of EU aircraft.”

The EU stopped the clock on the enforcement of the ETS in 2012 for international flights which operated to and from Europe as the move was opposed by India, China and the US among others. That prompted the EU to wait for the next Icao session in September to seek a resolution.

India’s stand won’t change even after the Icao meeting, said a senior environment ministry official.

“Our stand will be consistent with UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), which is the main agency to coordinate on climate change matters internationally. We will keep pursuing the principles of common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) and equity,” said the official who did not want to be named.