The kharif crop may improve by 8.1% to 135 million tonnes (mt) in the kharif season starting in July, according to a press release by the National Collateral Management Services Ltd, a private warehousing and weather data analysis company,

Kharif crop declined by 2% last year to 128 mt because of weak monsoon rains in much of southern India, Gujarat and Maharashtra,

The reduced kharif output accounted for most of the shortfall in food production in the entire 2012-13 crop year, when foodgrain production is estimated to have dropped 1.5% to 255.36 mt, according to the latest advance estimates released by the ministry of agriculture.

India’s economy is estimated to have grown by 5% in the fiscal year ended 31 March, the slowest pace in a decade, and growth is forecast by the finance ministry to bounce back to 6.1-6.7% in the current fiscal year.

Overall inflation has been declining, but food prices have remained a worry. Food prices for consumers rose an annual 10.61% in April.

Advance estimates made by the National Collateral Management Services indicate that rice cultivation is expected to increase in area by 3.99%.

Oilseed production is expected to increase by 20.63% over last year to 21.23 mt, with groundnut production expected to increase significantly by 86.71% over last year to 6.46 mt.

Sugarcane output, according to the agency’s calculations, is expected to see a marginal dip from 361 mt to 334 mt.

The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96-104% of long period average (LPA), a 50-year average of annual rainfall at 89 cm, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

This ties in with expectations by a host of international weather research companies that have forecast monsoon to be between 100 and 103% of LPA for the period between June and September.

On Wednesday, the Met said monsoon was likely to set in over Kerala by 3 June, but hasn’t yet indicated whether the monsoon will distribute equitably over the whole country. It is expected to indicate that by the end of June.

“With climate change it is becoming increasingly difficult to predict the pattern of monsoons with certainty,” said P.C. Kesavan, a fellow at the MS Swaminathan Research Foundation. “While there is a good possibility of maintaining our foodgrain production, it is difficult to say right now how much more or less it will be than last year’s output. Rains are critical for our agriculture and it is too soon to say that monsoons will be normal.”

Preliminary reports of crop coverage in the kharif season have started coming in.

Rice, the main summer crop, has so far been planted in 188,000 hectare, the ministry of agriculture said in a statement.

Rice planting at this time last year covered 226,000 hectares, and the drop is mainly because of late sowing in Assam and Orissa, the ministry said.