Put together by experts at the University of Agricultural Sciences here, the study looks closely at climatic conditions and the fallout on various sectors, particularly cropping pattern in the state.

"The early attainment of maximum temperature would mean that the number of rainy days will be less and the maximum temperature will go up by 3 degrees Centigrade. Extreme weather conditions, particularly floods and drought, cold and heat waves will be very common," the report noted.

Going by the recent trend in climate variability, a significant alteration in timing and intensity of the monsoon from year to year, which is already visible, will become more pronounced.

"Increasing evidence over the past few decades indicates that significant changes in climate are taking place worldwide due to enhanced human activities," said M B Rajegowda, agro-meteorologist at UAS.

Significantly, one direct fallout of climate change is the gradual decline in the south-west monsoon rainfall and a subsequent decreased pre-monsoon and north-east monsoon showers. A change in the rainfall pattern and amount of rainfall received during different months is, therefore, quite imminent, the study reveals.

Developing countries worst hit

Climate change is one of the biggest environmental threats to food production, water availability, forest biodiversity and livelihood and it will impact developing countries such as India more severely than the developed countries, the study said. The change will be most severe in the next 30-40 years, equivalent to the change over the past 100 years.

"Our adaptation and mitigation have to keep pace with the rate at which climate change is happening," said Rajegowda.

Menu makeover on the table

With the yield of conventional crops like rice, short-duration alternative crops like maize and millets are the best options for consumption, say experts. So, brace yourself for a change in food habits soon.

Blame it on global climate change, Karnataka's rice production is all set to take a beating in the coming years. The only alternative is to look at potential short-duration crops, including maize and millets, for everyday consumption, scientists of the University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore said, after studying the fallout of climate change in the state.

Long-range climate change has been observed worldwide as also changes in food production and individual crop yields. The change is slow in nature and is already forcing some areas to dump traditional crops in favour of alternative crops.

With Raichur, Koppal, Bellary, Bangalore, Bijapur, Chamarajanagar, Gadag and Mandya districts all set to lose their south-west monsoon rain by a substantial 12.5%, only low-water requirement crops like millets can be grown.

Experts say temperatures are likely to rise gradually by 2.5 degrees celsius to 4 degrees celsius from the current figure by 2035, as a result of which the yield of some primary crops of Karnataka may see a dip by 10%-20%.

A number of factors, including less rainfall and unexpected floods, will hit rice production in the state. Add to it an increase in temperature which could affect the yield at critical stages of crop growth, forcing experts to pin their hopes on alternative crops offset the impact.

"There's going to be a major shift in crop patterns across the state and the yields of crops will be reduced due to climate change over the years," said M B Rajegowda, agro-meteorologist at UAS.

Social Impact

Due to climate change, for example irregular rainfall pattern, if farmers are not able to harvest the optimum output from agricultural land, there are chances of agriculture being abandoned in many vulnerable areas of the state. The possibility of rural farmers getting engaged in off-farm activities will increase in such areas, and consequently, the pressure on cities will increase. The migration from rural areas is already visible.