Doha: Latest figures show global CO2 emissions are rising

The Telegraph , Monday, December 03, 2012
Correspondent : By Louise Gray, Environment Correspondent
Emissions of t he most significant greenhouse gas from burning fossil fuels are projected to have risen by 2.6 per cent on last year's levels to a high of 35.6 billion tonnes, analysis from the Global Carbon Project shows.

It is estimated some 80 per cent of the rise is due to the economic growth of China.

In the meantime the US and EU managed to reduce emissions slightly – thought not enough to offset the rise in emissions from the developing world.

The study, by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, warned that if levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to go up at this rate then global warming is on track to rise to 4 or even 6C by the end of the century.

The study comes as almost 200 countries gather in Doha, Qatar to try and agree a global deal on cutting carbon emissions.

Professor Corinne Le Quere, a lead author of the study, said that the new figures show countries will have to cut carbon more sharply to keep temperature rise within the ‘safe’ limit of 2C.

"These latest figures come amid climate talks in Doha. But with emissions continuing to grow, it's as if no one is listening to the entire scientific community.

"I am worried that the risks of dangerous climate change are too high on our current emissions trajectory. With the pathways we are on with intensive fossil fuels we are looking at 4, 5 or even 6C.

“This is not a safe climate for seven billion people. It means a change in vegetation, risking food production and the melting of ice sheets that could cause severe changes in the weather,” she warned.

"The climate is not a toy you play with”

The research revealed the biggest contributors to global emissions last year was China emitting 28 per cent of total carbon dioxide, followed by the United States at 16 per cent, the European Union at 11 per cent and India per cent.

Emissions from China grew nearly 10 per cent and India's emissions increased by 7.5 per cent last year, because of the use of coal, while emissions from the US fell 1.8 per cent and EU's carbon dioxide output fell 2.8 per cent, because of the recession and switch to natural gas and renewables.

The EU is under pressure to agree to cut carbon emissions under a second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol from 2013 onwards.

However the bloc are split over whether to include the cuts in carbon achieved after the collapse of the Soviet Union, so-called “hot air”.

All countries are working towards a global deal to cut carbon emissions from 2020, but again this deal is riven with divisions over which countries need to make more effort and how much money should be provided to help poorer states.

Prof le Quere said China and India need to start investing in new technology and renewable energy to cut carbon as the economy grows.

But she also said the developed world, that is responsible for most of the emissions in the past, needs to take action.

“China is dominating the global rise in emission that's for sure. The rich countries on the other side are decreasing a little bit - one to three per cent per year - but not enough to offset the growth in the developing world,” she said.

The average person in China used 6.6 tonnes of carbon dioxide last year, almost as much as in the EU where emissions were 7.3 tonnes per person but still well below the US level of 17.2

The carbon footprint of people in Qatar, where the conference is being held, was 43 tonnes.

The oil and gas rich state has seen emissions rise by 600 per cent since 1990, rising by 9 per cent between 2009 to 2010 and 12 per cent between 2010 to 2011.

Prof Le Quere said emissions per head could be brought under control in all countries relatively easily by ensuring that cars, appliances and homes are more energy efficient.

There also needs to be massive investment in switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy and 'low carbon' options like nuclear.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, showed that this transition has led to cuts in emissions up to five per cent in recent years in the UK, France and other countries.

But for this to happen, Governments need to intervene to provide tax breaks and targets.

“Most economic analysis agree it makes sense to have investment up front that pays off in the future," said Prof Le Quere. "The problem is losers and winners. There is a lot of resistance from the losers ...”

Emissions from deforestation and other land-use change added 10 per cent to the emissions from burning fossil fuels.

The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reached 391 parts per million (ppm) at the end of 2011.

Ed Davey, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, said scientists were right to be concerned but insisted climate change could be limited to 2C.

"As things stand, the world is plainly not on track to keep the global temperature increase below two degrees. Anyone who engages seriously with the science is right to be concerned.

"But there is reason to be hopeful.

"We have seen serious action by many countries, including some of the big emitters. Legislation is moving forward in the world's major economies. And there are important changes in the real economy. Global investment in renewables outstripped fossil fuels for the first time last year. Rising resource scarcity and climate stress means that sustainable, resilient production makes good business sense. Businesses are now setting the agenda for governments."

 
SOURCE : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9717280/Doha-Latest-figures-show-global-CO2-emissions-are-rising.html
 


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