AHMEDABAD: By 2050, Ahmedabad city will grow to over four times its present size. From its size of 190sqkm ( AMC area) in 2005 with a population of 4.7 million, Ahmedabad city will grow to 900 sqkm with a population of 12 million by 2050. The per capita income of the city too will increase by no less than 12 times.
That will also mean that if the city and the people carry on with the current trends of energy consumption, the CO2 emissions in the city, around 10 million tonnes a year now, will increase to 86.3 million tonnes a year in 2050.
This detailed picture of the city's future and carbon footprint is projected by a study — which charts a roadmap for a carbon-free city — headed by IIM-Aprofessor P R Shukla. Ahmedabad is the first city in the country with such a detailed low carbon society (LCS) roadmap in compliance with internationally agreed standards. Shukla is also a member of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which won the Nobel Prize. He heads the public systems group at IIM-A.
The study predicts that per capita income of the city will grow from Rs 65,000 in 2005 to Rs 8,24,000 in 2050. This increase will raise the carbon footprint of each person from 2.16 tonnes a year in 2005 to around 7 tonnes in 2050.
The major emission reduction potential is from improvements in energy intensity of economic activities and fuel switch in power transport and industrial sector. The study plans a roadmap to bring down the total carbon emission of the city and maintain it at around that of 2005 to make it an LCS city.
Talking about the study and the areas where the city's planning should focus to achieve carbon emission targets, Shukla said, "While efficiency in vehicles reduces carbon footprint, the planners need not worry much about this segment as automobile manufactures are already deeply concerned. The major potential lies in fuel switch and energy efficiency. The power plants should switch their fuel from coal to gas or renewable sources like solar and wind".
