The rainfall pattern in the region has remained erratic in the last few years. While last year heavy downpour flooded the region, the year 2009 was comparatively a waterless year.

If the Meteorological Department is to be believed, the climate change after-effects on the eco-system are evident in the past few years in the region. While the prayers to the rain God in 2010 were answered in excess in Punjab and Haryana and the two States experienced the worst natural disaster — floods, the annual rainfall in 2011 is likely to be less than the normal rainfall every year.

Every year deviation of some per cent from the normal rainfall pattern is observed in the region and deviation has been more concerning in the last eight to ten years. Unexpectedly, the monsoon had advanced in the region this year, yet the annual rainfall in the region is expected to be less than normal as the rains are of less intensity.

As per the data available with the Met Department, last year the States of Punjab and Haryana received rainfall in abundance with 557.4 mm each. There was a deviation of 20 per cent from the normal rainfall of 460.2 mm.

In 2010, the city received 1178.1 mm rainfall as against the normal rainfall of 846.6 mm. Even as the city continues to drench by light to heavy rains after every few days, the Met has predicted less annual rainfall this year in the city also. Unlike, last year’s annual rainfall of 1178.1 mm, the city may receive nearly 846.6 mm of annual rain this year.

As per the observations of the Met Department, the rainfall pattern in Punjab and Haryana has changed drastically in last few years while the rainfall pattern in Chandigarh did not differ much and remains approximately same every year. The deviation in the pattern every year remains negligible.

Contrary to that, the rainfall pattern in neighbouring States of Punjab and Haryana keeps on varying every year. While the States received heavy annual rainfall of 557.4 mm after several years in 2010, the year 2009 was a rainfall deficient year as the States were as drenched by light annual rainfall of 290.7 mm against the normal rains of 660.2 mm. There was a deviation of -38 in the rainfall pattern in 2009. Likewise, both the States had received light annual rains of 290.6 mm in 2006 with the deviation of -38.2 from the normal downpour pattern.

In 2006, the Met Department observed deviation of -38.2 in the rainfall pattern, -33.1 in 2007, 14.1 in 2008, -38 in 2009, 21 in 2010 and -20 in Haryana, -4 in Punjab till July 2011.

Only few areas of these States have received heavy downpour till now. Haryana has received 128.4 mm rainfall while the normal rainfall till this season is 159.9 mm. Punjab has also recorded 163.9 mm of rainfall till now, while normal expected rainfall till July is 169.9 mm.

Apparently, there is a deviation in rainfall pattern in the last few years.

“Overall, weather pattern has witnessed changes in the region. Rains are certainly a concerning issue as scanty rains are ensuing in drought and heavy rains are resulting in floods,” said Surender Pal, Director of the Meteorological Department at Chandigarh while talking to The Pioneer

He said: “The change in rains pattern is due to the climate change. The deviation in rainfall distribution is apparent in the data compiled by the Met Department in the last 10 years. The change in rain pattern is mainly in the neighboring States of Punjab and Haryana while Chandigarh is not yet affected due to the climate change.”

“While the overall rainfall pattern remains unclear, the climate models in the region give conflicting observations every year. Even as the monsoon had advanced in the region this year, they are of less intensity and the region is likely to receive less than normal rainfall in 2010,” he said.

“Also, the climate change should not be generalised with the change in extreme weather conditions and rise in temperature, it is affecting everything including rainfall, forests, pollution, health etc,” he added.