The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific body, set up by the UN, working to assess the science behind climate change. The IPCC itself does not engage in any scientific research. Instead, its mandate is to go through all recent literature on climate science published anywhere in the world and make its conclusions based on them. These conclusions come out in the form of assessment reports. So far, IPCC, which was formed in 1989, has produced four assessment reports. The fourth one came out in 2007 after which the IPCC was given the Nobel Peace Prize. The fifth assessment report is in the making and is due in 2013-14. The first assessment report, released in 1990, resulted in the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The Structure
The IPCC currently has 194 countries as members which are represented at the plenary and meet once in a year. The plenary elects a chairman whose term is made synchronous with the production of one assessment report, which is generally five-six years. The current chairman R K Pachauri is in his second term. He presided over the process of producing the fourth assessment report and is now in-charge of taking out the fifth as well. The plenary also elects a Bureau, presently comprising 31 member countries, which guides the scientific teams in the preparation of the reports. The Bureau has a similar tenure as the chairman. The IPCC secretariat, which has a small staff, plans and coordinates all the activities.
The scientists and the process
About 2,500 scientists from all over the world participated in the fourth assessment report. About 60 of them were from India, in different capacities.
The scientists have to volunteer to work for the IPCC and their names are nominated by their respective governments to the IPCC secretariat. Care is taken to give adequate representation to every region of the world. These scientists, based on their area of expertise, are asked to work in one of the three working groups.
Working Group-I deals with the physical science and studies the scientific basis for climate change. Working Group-II looks at the impacts of climate change, the adaptation and vulnerability aspects, while Working Group-III is responsible for looking at ways to reduce the effects of climate change.
Smaller groups of scientists, comprising chief lead authors, lead authors and contributing authors, concentrate on specific topics within these broad parameters.
Whatever conclusions these scientists reach is reviewed, word by word, by other scientists and experts. Each of these conclusions is also put up to all the governments for their endorsement. The final report contains only those statements which are agreed by consensus.
The scientists, either authors or contributors or reviewers, are not paid for their IPCC work, apart from a daily allowance.
Who funds IPCC?
The IPCC is funded by the UN and World Meteorological Organisation and donations from member countries.
The controversy
The IPCC is under fire for a conclusion in the fourth assessment report that the Himalayan glaciers will probably disappear by 2035 at the current rate of global warming. It has since been established that this finding, based on a claim made by Indian glaciologist Syed Hasnain in 1999, was inaccurate. What has been extremely embarrassing is that IPCC had been aggressively quoting this figure in several public platforms.
With the glacier claim going up in hot air, questions are being raised on the credibility of the IPCC. It has tendered a public apology for the glacier mistake, but a number of other conclusions in the fourth assessment report have also come under scrutiny.
What next?
The panel has started work on the fifth assessment report with the promise that every aspect of climate change science would be “meticulously reassessed”. The next report would include new areas including the problem of climate change refugees and the socio-economic impacts of climate change.
The IPCC is also working on two ‘special’ reports which will be out in 2011. One report will focus on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Marking a break from the usual focus of the IPCC, chapters will focus on bio-energy, solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy, wind energy.
The other ‘special’ report is on ‘managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation’. There will be three focus areas of this report: events which are caused by climate change (the IPCC will focus on floods and drought); trends outside the domain of climate change, like coastal development; and ‘potentially hazardous events’ like glacial lakes outbursts.
