Harmony with environment the new growth imperative.

Bangkok Post , Monday, February 15, 2010
Correspondent :
On the surface, the link between tiger conservation and development economics and sustainable growth appears a tenuous one.

On the contrary argues Vinod Thomas, director-general of the Independent Evaluation Group for the World Bank.

"The decline in the world tiger population and other species shows the destabilisation of the equilibrium between man and nature," he said.

"It's at the helm of the biodiversity chain. We can't just continue to destroy the environment and expect economic growth to continue."

Mr Thomas recently attended the first Asian Ministerial Conference of 13 countries on tiger conservation, held two weeks ago in Hua Hin.

Development, according to current World Bank doctrine, must take a more holistic approach, where economic goals move in harmony with social and environmental interests if progress is to be sustained.

"Take the rising incidence and intensity of natural disasters all across the planet. This is persuasively linked to climate change. And the threat and cost from climate change could dwarf that of the financial crisis," Mr Thomas said.

"In a financial crisis, people lose their shirts and more. But in a natural disaster, people lose their lives."

A former chief economist for the World Bank in the East Asia and Pacific region, Mr Thomas said that while immediate energy supplies are ample relative to demand, oil prices could eventually revisit the record highs seen in the past unless alternatives emerge.

"Energy supply projections remain uncertain, depending on technological breakthroughs," he said. "But the downside of not taking action [toward sustainable energy] is very, very high."

Across the region, Korea has been a leader in directing funds towards energy conservation projects, alternative energy and "green" infrastructure, with nearly four-fifths of the country's fiscal stimulus programmes going to green projects. China is also committing funds to green initiatives, at more than one-third of its stimulus budget, while Australia, France, the US and Mexico have also earmarked significant portions of their budgets to conservation and alternative energy.

But even though it appears that the worst of the 2008 crisis has passed, questions remain about the strength and sustainability of the recovery, particularly as public finances for many countries continue to deteriorate due to the cost of stimulus programmes, safety nets and bank bailouts as tax revenues have plummeted.

Mr Thomas noted that for the G20 economies, the fiscal deficit in 2009 rose by some seven percentage points of gross domestic product compared with 2007.

Developing countries have lower deficits than developed ones, with developing G20 economies showing a five-percentage-point worsening in deficits.

"The main question is how well have public stimulus funds been used? And when will the private sector pick up? Crucial to a sustained recovery will be improved productivity of the resources," Mr Thomas said.

He noted that flows from official sources increased sharply during this crisis, topped by disbursements from the World Bank Group itself.

At the same time, private flows to emerging market economies are not close to reaching pre-crisis levels, with net flows estimated at $400 to $700 billion a year in 2009 and 2010 compared with a peak of more than $1.2 trillion in 2007.

"The recovery of private flows is critical. If this doesn't happen, then a rethink will be necessary on how public expenditures are expected to bring about a sustained turnaround," he said.

A sustainable recovery also calls for rectifying the financial imbalances between the East and the West that contributed to the global crisis, a shift that remains uncertain to occur.

Mr Thomas said for open, trade-dependent economies such as Thailand, uncertainties remained as to how growth would build over the medium term, particularly if global demand remained weak. While East Asia rebounded in 2009, growth outside of China was sharply slower, notably in Malaysia and Thailand.

Last month, the World Bank projected global GDP growth at 2.7% this year and 3.2% in 2011. Developing economies, led by China and India, are projected to expand 5.2% this year and 5.8% in 2011.

For Thailand, the World Bank projects growth of 3.5% this year and 4% in 2011, against a contraction of 2.7% in 2009.

 
SOURCE : http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/32930/harmony-with-environment-the-new-growth-imperative
 


Back to pevious page



The NetworkAbout Us  |  Our Partners  |  Concepts   
Resources :  Databases  |  Publications  |  Media Guide  |  Suggested Links
Happenings :  News  |  Events  |  Opinion Polls  |  Case Studies
Contact :  Guest Book  |  FAQs |  Email Us