KOLKATA: With increasing sea levels accentuating its scale a catastrophe like the December 26 Tsunami, which wiped out thousands of people in south Indian and part of south Asia, is just a wait away.Though we cannot predict when the next Tsunami is coming but rising sea waters will accentuate it. The destructive Tsunami last year may have been triggered by subterranean factors but tampering with nature's rhythm will only hasten the next,'' warns director of climate Research at Hadley centre Dave Griggs.
Reminding of the dangers of the rising levels of global warming, Mr Griggs, at a lecture session organised by the British council here, told UNI, '' a higher level of the sea will mean higher waves during such storms. Global warming will unleash a series of climatic changes with a cascading effect across the planet.The fears are more than apparent for the city and its suburbs.
According to Griggs, within fifty years the bay of Bengal can extend to very close to Kolkata. ''Since 1990 the world's temper- atures have risen by 0.7' C and carbon dioxide emissions by 12 times. The worst case scenario can be a rise of 2'C by 2045 which will raise sea levels by a metre globally enough to swamp vast tracts of India's coast, including southern Bengal and a 30 per cent of Bangladesh,'' he explained.Speaking about the Kyoto protocol ten days before it comes into force, Mr Griggs said the target taken by developed countries to reduce fossil fuels by 5 per cent in seven years is too little.The agreement to reduce fossil fuel is just a small first step.
Fuel emissions Remain absorbed in the air for 100 years water warms slowly and continually. So the ill effects of emission today can be visible a century later,'' Mr Griggs, a cloud physi- cist by training and one of the Foremost climate change analysts of our time, said. A winner of the 1992 Vilho Vaisala award of the world meteorological organisation, Mr Griggs is on a week- long visit to India under the aegis of the British council divi- sion for consultative meetings with policy makers on the optimi- sation of weather predictions for agriculture and Research.
Revealing his India specific plans, Mr Griggs said the Hadley centre will soon start a collaborative project with the union science and technology ministry and education institutes like IITs in Delhi and Mumbai, Delhi Indian meteorological department and others.Under the plan, Hadley centre will supply forecasts on the weather within a relatively short time-frame of six months.
Availability of monsoonal data at this rate of periodicity will equip planners to formulate more tangible policies on agricul- ture, Mr Griggs pointed out. The west has also not managed to stay insulated from the effects of climate change. The heat wave that swept western Europe in 2002 raising the mercury to 100' F killing around 20,000 people and Britain's spate of coldest ever winters also point at the repercussions of an increasingly warmer earth unsettling the nature's rhythm, he observed.
In his prescription, Mr Griggs says, ''the first step is to manage industry and invest in clean fuel. The developing world can no longer wait for the others. China will become the world's biggest emitter by 2012. India and China will have to create the resources to battle climate change,'' he said.
