The Hazira industrial belt, which accounts for nearly a third of Gujarat’s total investments, may lose Rs 3,100 crore or more in investments by 2015 due to the rising sea level.
The study-A Paradox in Environmental and Economic Development in the context of probable impact due to Sea Level in Low Elevation Coastal Zone: The Case of Surat City — relies on the assessment of the Third Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Study authors, the Centre for Environmental Planning and Technology (CEPT) Professor R Parthasarathy and Ph.D fellow Soumini Raja, estimate that the total loss to Hazira would be Rs 3,111 crore by 2015, and as much as Rs 10,000 crore or more by 2100. This would happen because 50 per cent of the notified area of Hazira, which measures 168 square kilometres, would be inundated by a one-metre rise in the sea level, it says.
The study also states that this rise will directly affect 24 existing industries, and 31 other units indirectly .
The study points out a number of reasons for this, such as the violation of CRZ norms by the industries in the area, as well as unplanned development that had failed to factor the effects of natural changes to the area.
The study states that the Hazira Area Master Plan (drawn up in 2004 to act as a guideline for development of the area) does not completely follow Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) norms. “Hazira demonstrates the ill-effects of planning economic centres with little emphasis to gradual environmental threats like sea level rise. Most of the present development activities (on Indian coasts) have been planned without taking into consideration the potential threat from natural hazard such as rise in the sea level,” the study further says.
The study has now called for a micro-level research for any kind of project embarked upon in future, perhaps even an overhaul of the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) notification, 1991.
Prof Parthasarathy told Newsline that micro-level studies (even site-specific studies), must be carried out before framing acts or guidelines for industrial expansion on coasts. “But ultimately, we need to have a dynamic set of guidelines, not a static, comprehensive law, that can be moulded according to the needs of an area,” he said.
