Climbdown on 2°C clause done as a last resort?

Times of India , Friday, July 17, 2009
Correspondent : Indrani Bagchi
NEW DELHI: India was the last dissenter on a "recognition" that the world should try to keep temperature rise to under 2 degree Celsius by 2050.

At the final round of negotiations to a climate change document in the recent Major Economies Forum (MEF) in Italy on July 7, China, Brazil and South Africa had all agreed to acknowledging the "2 degree C" point before India decided to go along with the compromise.

According to Indian negotiators, the developing world faced intense pressure from the west on three main issues: first, US-EU pressure to accept a 50% cut in emissions by 2050; second, US and EU refused to accept a linkage between peaking of developing countries and "social development and poverty eradication" which was anathema to the developing countries; and third, the demand that developing countries take up to 30% deviation from `business-as-usual' (BAU).

By the end of the negotiations, the developing countries successfully fended off the demand for 50% cuts. They only consented to "meaningful" deviation from BAU, but made it conditional on financial and technology and capacity building support from the developed world. Despite opposition from the west, India, China and others established the link between peaking and poverty eradication.

While the 2 degree is a compromise, PM's special envoy Shyam Saran told journalists in Italy, "We do not regard this as an arithmetical target; we regard this as a political decision because there is a great deal of uncertainty with respect to what would be the actual rise in temperature, what would be the consequences of that rise of temperature."

It's the compromise on "2 degree C" that the former Indian negotiator, Surya Sethi, has challenged, saying it would hinder India's development. In an email circulated to other negotiators, he said this acceptance would make India poorer. Sethi, who is in the Planning Commission, has not been part of the Indian climate negotiating team since June, and is due to retire at the end of July.

What is clear is that there appears to be a growing disconnect between the foreign ministry and the ministry of environment. On Saturday, foreign secretary Shiv Shankar Menon is scheduled to meet environment minister Jairam Ramesh to evolve a joint position on climate change negotiations.

In an explanation after the declaration, Saran conceded that the first paragraph on mitigation was the most difficult to agree between the two sides. Why did India agree to the 2 degree cap? For two reasons. One, the compromise to keep the developing flock together as a single negotiating block, and second to get a "clean text" that did not tie the developing countries down to any targets.

On the demand to accept 50% cuts, India, China, Brazil and South Africa in turn demanded more credible cuts by the developed world by 2020, rather than 2050, because they felt the developed countries were backloading all emission cuts commitments. Of course, the developed countries refused to accede to their demand for 40% cuts by 2020.

In a sense, it was India that led the climate change negotiations, said diplomatic sources. And nowhere did India take any decision on its own. It was China, India, Brazil and South Africa who coordinated their positions, said diplomats at the meeting. In fact, at the end of the negotiations, the Indian side came in for praise from China. Notwithstanding all the efforts by the US to cut a separate deal with the Chinese, thus far, India and China are hanging together on the climate change issue.

 
SOURCE : Friday, July 17, 2009
 


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