“From various nationwide studies done, we have culled State-specific information,” says R. Annamalai, Director of the Environment Department. Whether predictions of temperature increase, changing rainfall pattern or rising sea level, neither the government nor any non-governmental organisations had gathered or analysed data specific to the State.

“The baseline data is missing – what has changed, what are the trends, what are the projections. This is the first step of needed research,” says A. Arivudai Nambi, climate change project director at the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation. When it comes to the impact of these climatic changes on places and populations there is even less information available.

Going by global scientific surveys, experts say crops are likely to be affected by rainfall and temperature changes and increasing salinity in some areas. Both flooding and drought could increase. Coastal areas and livelihoods could be affected by erosion and climate disasters, plant and animal ecosystems would face changes. Water tables and availability of water could be affected, and, as an indirect result, the health of the population could be at stake.

There have been no State studies done on any of these projected impacts. Without the backing of solid data, the government cannot take targeted action to prepare or protect vulnerable communities. “Unless you know how and where you are going to be hit, how can you plan?” asks Dr. Nambi.

The Centre for Climate Change Adaptation and Research, set up with an investment of Rs.1 crore, is now undertaking the first studies on such issues. Preliminary reports on the vulnerabilities in the Eastern Ghats and along the coast are due by next April.

The centre’s director A. Ramachandran points out that it is useless to ask for national or global support until a thorough evaluation of the situation is done. “There has been no measurement, no monitoring. So we can’t even ask for adaptation funds.”

There is some piece-meal research going forward. Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, with Norwegian funding, is carrying out the ClimaRice project to assess the impact of climate change on paddy cultivation in the Cauvery delta and develop rice grains and growing techniques adaptable to changing conditions.

The MSSRF has done some work with regard to bioshields along the coast that could protect against a climatic disaster. However, there has not been a comprehensive effort yet.

Tamil Nadu has several high-profile initiatives on the mitigation front. Most significantly, the State is a leading proponent of wind energy. The Tamil Nadu Energy Development Agency is proactive in promoting renewable energy sources. However, the Environment Department bemoans the lack of any similar focus on adaptation needs.

“The debate on emission reduction happens at a global and national level… [But] whether or not mitigation measures are implemented, we will have to face the brunt of climate change impacts anyway and we must be prepared to adapt,” says Dr. Annamalai.