Switchover to clean processes, fuel-efficient vehicles, energy-saving devices and other such steps will not be enough to avoid the catastrophic consequences of climate change. The developed countries will have to effect a “deep cut” in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to combat the challenge posed by global warming, asserts Sunita Narain, noted environment scientist and director of the Centre for Science and Environment.

“There has been a lot of talk about global warming over the past two decades, but not a single concrete step has been taken to arrest the dangerous trend. The time is running out and if the present trend continued, the temperature could rise by 5°C by 2050 with far-reaching implications for life on the planet. The gravity of the situation can be judged from the fact that it took 3 million years since ice age for the mercury to rise this much (5°C). The average temperature has already increased by 0.7°C and with the environmental pollution already caused, a further increase of 0.7°C is inevitable. Hence, there is a need for wide-ranging urgent measures to cope with the problem,” Narain said. She was here to make a presentation on climate change at the interactive meet on governance issues organised by the government.

The situation could still be saved if the average increase in temperature could be arrested to 2°C. It was, however, a huge task for which the planners would have to re-invent the process of economic development. The switchover to low carbon economy will require developed nations to cut GHGs by at least 30 per cent by 2020. The developing countries could contribute not by legal binding, but through strategies to avoid future emissions.

Warning a note of caution, she said a rise of 5°C would mean an unacceptably high level of suspended particulate matter (550 ppm). The current levels are already touching 430 ppm and the effort should be to contain it at 450 ppm.

However, this could be achieved only by effecting 85 per cent reduction in the GHG level by 2050. Energy, transport and industrial sectors were major contributors to CHG emissions. “In a city like Delhi, 1,000 new vehicles hit the road daily and it already has 45 lakh vehicles. Private vehicles need to be replaced with efficient public transport. The construction of metro rail and the introductions of bus rapid transport system are major steps in that direction,” she said.

She disapproved of the CDM mechanism and said it required major reforms to ensure prompt realisation of carbon credits.