Australia cotton faces climate change threat

Times of India , Saturday, July 12, 2008
Correspondent : Staff Reporter
GOLD COAST: Australian cotton production will suffer from increasing water shortages as a result of climate change, the government's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) said on Tuesday.

A recent study by the CSIRO showed median decreases in water availability in cotton growing areas of between 5 per cent and 12 per cent by 2030, a leading agricultural scientist with CSIRO said in an advance copy of a paper to be delivered to the Australian Cotton Conference.

Australia's cotton industry, centred on the eastern states of New South Wales and Queensland, has already been hit hard by drought in recent years. "Potentially significant impacts on cotton yields and quality, on water resources and the efficiency of their use and on pests and weeds (have been identified)," said Dr Mark Howden of CSIRO.

Besides possible reductions in water availability, salt concentrations may also increase in some cotton growing areas, said Howden, who examines the impact of climate change on Australian agriculture at CSIRO.

Australian cotton production has already declined significantly because of drought and reduced irrigated water allocations in recent years. Production of cotton lint is estimated to have fallen to 126,000 tonnes in 2007/08 from 274,000 tonnes the year before and 597,000 tonnes in 2005/06.

Production is forecast to rebound to 428,000 tonnes in 2008/09, but this depends on rainfall, as does the longer-term production outlook.

Climate change may also reduce water availability in other regions globally, such as the southern and western United States, the Mediterranean, South Africa and western south America, but China may have increased water availability, Howden said, quoting the United Nations' climate change panel.

After global price rises this year for grains and cotton, the terms of trade were turning back in favour of farming, but costs were also rising, said Julian Cribb, a professor at the University of Technology Sydney.

The Australian cotton industry was at the forefront in dealing with climate change and efficiency in use of water, land, fuel and chemicals, but was facing the same challenges as food in world agricultural production, he said.

"The present food crisis is a forewarning of what the world can expect in the decades ahead as civilisation runs low on water, arable land, nutrients and technology, as marine catches collapse, as biofuels expand, energy costs soar and as droughts intensify under climate change," Cribb said. Cribb said he saw world food prices continuing to go up "in jigs and jags", with some downturn in the short term as northern hemisphere crops came onto markets.

 
SOURCE : Times of India, Tuesday, 12 August 2008
 


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