This cool May sure is a sign of climate change

The Hindu , Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Correspondent : Vibha Sharma
New Delhi: Monday and Tuesday have been the coolest days during the month of May this year in the region. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts the weather is going to more or less remain equally pleasant for the next three days-Wednesday, Thursday and Friday-as well.

So is there anything unusual about this month this year? There have been eight squalls in and around Delhi during the month so far, which have not just uprooted trees and caused damage to property but killed and injured several people. On Monday, the maximum temperatures hovered around nine degree below the normal and on Tuesday around 11 degree, not quite the record coolest but quite near it.

While environmentalists say that unusually cool and squally May is a sure sign of climate change, weathermen say otherwise. They say there is nothing unusual about the weather as there have been similar instances during this time of the year in the past as well.

Climate change or otherwise, the fact is it has rained 32 mm so far during the month and as per noted agricultural scientist M.S. Swaminathan, if it is a good soaking rain, it will be good for the soil as well the kharif crop. At present, there is no major crop in the field. Wheat has been harvested and stored and these rains will be good for paddy transplantation, which will begin around June 10 in Punjab and Haryana.

Last May, it rained 72 mm, says IMD Director S.C. Bhan, adding that coolest day during the month in the past has been May 1, 2004. So even though some environmentalists may say that strong thunderstorms during this time of the year are a sure sign of global warming, Bhan says it is too early to arrive at this conclusion.

“The weather is pleasant, not freaky as there have been similar instances in the past as well. Maybe there is climate change but global warming is a widespread phenomenon, it is difficult to say there is climate change unless there is a longer duration data to confirm it,” he adds.

And to set the record straight the current rains cannot be termed as pre-monsoon and also have nothing to do with cyclone Nargis.

The current weather is due to influence of cyclonic circulations over Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan and another over Himachal Pradesh and adjoining north Haryana. Due to this fairly widespread rainfall accompanied with isolated thundersquall/hail is likely over Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh during next 48 hours.

The current meteorological analysis suggests that fairly widespread rain/thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall/hail is also likely over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal and Sikkim during next three to four days. The northeastern states are also likely to experience fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy fall during the same period. Prevailing heat wave condition over coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to abate during next two to three days.

So far the region has already experienced eight squalls during May, quite close to the high of nine during 2006. During the past 10 years, there were six squalls during 2007, nine in 2006, two in 2005, five in 2004, two in 2003, five in 2002 and five in 2001.

This year the speediest squall to hit Delhi was on May 17, recorded 98 kmph at Safdarjung and 104 kmph at Palam.

Bhan says that May has been like this and there have been more dust storms with greater intensity during the month. “ The record is held by the squall on May 23, 1976, which screamed through the region at the speed of 152 kmph,” he adds.

 
SOURCE : The Hindu, Wednesday, 21 May 2008,
 


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