CHENNAI: Climate change can cause India a loss of 125 million tonnes of cereals, equivalent to 18 per cent of the country’s rain-fed production, Jacques Diouf, Director-General of the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations, said on Tuesday.

Talking of the possible adverse impact of climate change on agriculture worldwide, Dr. Diouf, in a lecture at the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, said the crop yield potential was likely to rise at higher latitudes for global average temperature increases of up to 1-3 degree Celsius, depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that.

On the contrary, at lower latitudes, especially in the seasonally dry tropics, the potential was likely to decline for even a small global temperature increase.

A greater frequency of droughts and floods would affect local production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors, at low latitudes. “Rain-fed agriculture in marginal areas in the semi-arid and sub-humid regions is mostly at risk,” Dr. Diouf said.

Industrialised nations could gain in production potential, while developing countries might lose, he said.

The effect of climate change on forests, forest-dependent people and environmental conditions was already evident. “Increased incidence of forest fires and severe outbreaks of forest pests and diseases is being linked to climate change,” he said. The role played by the forests in climate change mitigation and adaptation was paramount.

Bio-energy production

Referring to bio-energy production, he said it might have substantial impact on agricultural markets and food prices worldwide. Social and environmental concerns needed to be addressed through effective policy frameworks that ensured that benefits from bio-energy reached those who had always been excluded, the urban poor and the marginalised sections in the rural areas.

Pointing out that 209 million people were still hungry in India, Dr. Diouf said the downward trend in the number of undernourished had been reverted in recent years. His organisation, in its vision of a hunger-free world, advocated a village-by-village approach as a quick and effective way of achieving the goal. Pointing out that China and the FAO recently entered into an alliance for the deployment of 3,000 SSC (South-South Cooperation) experts and technicians and increasing the number of those already fielded from 11 other cooperating countries, he wanted India to follow suit.

As for bird flu, he cautioned that “given the presence and persistence of the bird flu H5N1 viruses in neighbouring countries, it is possible that India will face repeated incursions of this important threat to both animals and humans.” Commendable efforts were made by the country’s veterinary and other public services last year.

M.S. Swaminathan, chairman of the Foundation, called for allocation of greater resources to the fields such as biotechnology.