WITH THE ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by the Russian Duma last month and with Vladimir Putin giving his stamp of approval for the treaty (on November 5), the climate change debate has finally crossed the rubicon. The international treaty, adopted in 1997 at the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and spurned by the U.S., the biggest polluter, had hitherto lacked the critical mass that would trigger its implementation even though it had been ratified by 125 nations.
The Russian endorsement now ensures that 55 nations which together contribute to 55 per cent of global greenhouse emissions are now collectively serious about reducing them. Along with 29 other rich nations, Russia is now committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 per cent from the 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. In other words, the Kyoto clock will soon start ticking away.
What does this entail for India? Nothing immediate for sure. But then, being a signatory, India, like other developing countries, will be required to eventually move away from polluting fossil fuels if it is not to find itself on the wrong side of international law. `Eventually' could be as early as 2012 when the Kyoto targets come up for review. In fact, there is concern among the rich nations that without subjecting the big three developing countries — China, India and Brazil — to firm emission reduction targets, Kyoto might not be very effective.
The pressure will soon begin to build on India and others to put in place measures that will contain their greenhouse gas emissions and perhaps even reduce them. That means India can no longer generously dip into its substantial domestic coal reserves which, at current levels of consumption, will last it over hundred years and save it the burden of cushioning exchange rate fluctuations to which imported fuels are subject.
In June this year, India submitted its National Communication to the UNFCC. This document, required to be submitted by every member of the treaty, contains a comprehensive inventory of greenhouse gases from existing activities. Emission reduction targets will be set on the basis of these figures. Even at the time of submission, the data in the National Communication is already a decade old. It pertains to emission levels obtaining in 1994 which is taken as the base year. During the last decade, there has been a virtual explosion in the transportation sector especially in the developing countries and significant growth in carbon-intensive industrial activity all of which will have to be factored into any realistic and meaningful emission reduction measures.
According to India's National Communication, 794 Tg (teragram) of CO2, 18 Tg of CH4, 178 Gg (gigagram) of N2O were emitted by India `due to various anthropogenic activities.' Needless to say energy tops the list of these activities. Almost 83 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions came from what the documents calls `fuel comubustion.' It includes such activities as power generation, petroleum refining and transportation. Even within this category, power generation and petroleum refining have been identified as the biggest polluters, accounting for nearly half of all carbon dioxide emissions.
Transportation, on the other hand, accounted for just about 10 per cent of all carbon emissions in 1994 when the vehicle population was around 25 million. Since then, the number of vehicles on Indian roads had grown exponentially to over 55 million in 2001, but simultaneously, vehicular emission norms have been upgraded twice — in 1996 and in 2000 to keep emissions in check.
In 1994, industrial processes such as production of cement, aluminium, carbide, limestone and iron and steel etc accounted for about 12 per cent of carbon emissions.
Therefore, any measures that target reduction in carbon dioxide emissions are bound to be directed first at power generation. At present, coal accounts for about 61 per cent of installed generation capacity while the share of gas is around 11 per cent. The latter deploys combined cycle gas turbine technology where the turbines can use dual fuel — naphtha as well as gas.
Thus, 72 per cent of all power generation comes from fossil fuels — whether coal or hydrocarbons. Nuclear power, a clean source of energy, accounts for just under 2 per cent and the entire range of renewable technologies such as wind, geothermal and solar add up to just over a single percentage point in India's total electricity mix.
In order to move away from coal, it is imperative that the country takes a re-look at its energy options. Hydel contributes 24 per cent to the total installed capacity of around 112,000 megawatts. The Central Electricity Authority has identified a hydel potential of 15 gigawatts. However, big dams being controversial, what with the enormity of the resettlement problems, India may have to aggressively pursue mini and micro hydel projects. Even so, its dependence on thermal energy will continue.
While gas is a relatively clean fuel, its share will depend critically on the affordability factor. With global spot price of gas hovering upwards of $5 per MMBTU (thousand metric British thermal unit) even the U.S. that has not built a single nuclear power reactor in the last 25 years is now reviewing the nuclear energy option.
For India, expanding its nuclear energy capacity is not just an option, but an imperative if we are serious about maintaining a sustainable trajectory of development. One hopes that the prototype fast breeder reactor being built at Kalpakkam will spur it on to that trajectory.
