In the next five years it could plunge to a level of around 500 cats _ in many parts of India it would no longer be able to sustain itself. Wildlife Protection Society of India director Belinda Wright says, "It's going to be one of the biggest conservation debacles the world has seen."

A report warns over the next 20 years tigers were poised to "disappear in many places, or shrink to the point of 'ecological extinction.' "

Poaching has always been a problem in India, but with the Chinese economic boom, the demand for tiger parts for use in traditional Chinese medicine has increased manifold. A large pelt can fetch over $10,000. Tibet has become a virtual shopping mall for tigers. "It's a huge criminal racket," said an expert.

"A villager can earn as much in one night from poisoning and skinning a tiger as from farming in five years. Eventually, that skin can sell for $6,000 in Lhasa."

Conservationists blame New Delhi for failing to protect the tigers.

Wright reserves particular ire for the Government's 30-year-old showcase effort, Project Tiger, which is widely regarded as understaffed and underfunded.

"The Government hasn't recruited any forest staff in 15 years," she says. Remarks tiger expert Valmik Thapar, "The Government just doesn't have the will to save the tiger." Many of the wildlife criminals are highly organised with a network starting from the poachers through the middlemen and financiers to the syndicate members with international linkage.

The result is a systematic pushing of tigers to the brink of extinction. Of the eight species of tigers known, three have already perished. And it is said what is being seized is the tip of the iceberg and against one seizure, five manage to escape detection.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who acknowledged India's need for a more effective strategy for tackling poaching, in 2005 convened a Tiger Task Force under leading environmentalist Sunita Narain. The body recommended streamlining Government agencies and establishing a wildlife-crime bureau.

But PK Sen, head of the WWF's India Tiger Conservation Programme and former director of Project Tiger dumping it said, "The Task Force members only looked at the best parks and never even went to the worst ones."

At least 250 tigers are slaughtered by poachers each year, according to Wright. Data available at the Project Tiger Directorate (PTD) indicate that of 173 tigers deaths during 1999-2004, 83 were due to poaching. An independent survey reported 200 tiger deaths during the same period of which 121 were due to poaching.

These figures indicate failure of PTD and the States to take adequate measures for preservation of tiger. No special anti-poaching drive was taken. The population of tigers outside the reserves was 2,502 in 1984 declining to 1,765 by 2001-02.

During the same period, the population of tigers in the reserves increased from 1,121 to 1,141. The net increase in tiger population in 15 tiger reserves over 18 years was only 20.

Till date, tiger conservation has been confined within the boundaries of the 28 reserves created under the Wildlife Protection Act. But more than half of India's tigers is found outside in forests contiguous with these reserves, where they share space with humans. India has 60 per cent of the world's tigers. Over the past five years, the parks' tiger populations have decreased to an average of 35 per cent.

Between 1989 and 1992, around the Ranthambhore National Park in Rajasthan, 18 tigers were killed by poachers while 60 guards were patrolling the forest. Project Tiger is in place, Task Force was formed, but the situation continues to be grim much to the knowledge and chagrin of the Government.