A set of quiggly graphs and mind boggling numbers that scientists alone deal with, could make it look like a mere academic study. But in truth what the audience was seeing at the public lecture was the futuristic tale of where the planet is headed.
A warming rate unprecedented and with the capability to cause extreme damage owes its thanks to increasing carbon dioxide levels. There is now consensus among the scientific community that there is less than five percent likelihood this is natural. The jury has returned with a clear verdict. Global warming that we are witnessing is man-made.
As the speaker Professor Jorge L S armiento of Princeton University, noted, "it is time to realise that this is happening on our planet, not somewhere else. And do something about it."
Today’s levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at around 370 ppm (parts per million) are the highest in 20 million years. From 1958 CO2 levels have been steadily rising, especially carbon production from fossil fuel burning. For data beyond that, studies of ice cores come in handy and they tell us that the levels were miniscule compared to the present.
Luckily, due to rise in price of oils, growth rate slowed down and so did carbon emissions. "We need to stabilise emissions over the next 50 years using existing technology," said the professor, adding that if China (second largest emitter after the US) and India (at fifth place) were to grow at same rate as the US, then the world is in deep problem.
He expressed surprise and appreciation that India actually has a ministry for non-conventional energy. While grimacing about the ‘neanderthal’ attitude of the US government, he took hope in the fact that individual states like California, as well as private companies had realised the need to accept global warming and act to check it.
There is a big gap between those who like David King (scientific advisor to UK govt) believes climate change is the worst problem facing us, more than even the threat of terrorism, to those like Senator James Inhofe who believes that global warming is the biggest hoax perpetrated on the world!
There is need to address energy efficiency, methane management, decarbonate electricity and fuels, improve forests and soils, he said. To stabilise carbon emissions would mean having two billion cars driven over 10,000 miles at 60 miles per gallon instead of 30 mpg! And one million 2 MW windmills displacing coal plants, twice the present capacity of nuclear energy, etc.
Today 76 stations observe terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake while 67,484 such observations are available for ocean uptake. There is still a lot of discrepancy between the data and many missing blanks but with more models available today and data, scientists are beginning to understand the exchange mechanism at play, said the professor.
He was delivering the Indian Academy of Science lecture at IISc in Bangalore recently.
