The month’s first half saw northern India experience a mini cold wave. Minimum temperatures in the national capital ruled just over 9 degrees Celsius on Holi, which fell on March 13, against the normal of 15 degrees for that period. Tourists were pleasantly surprised to witness snowfall in Shimla and Manali, while Mussoorie celebrated its first “White Holi” since 1988.

But cut to the second half and we had near-heat wave conditions, with maximum temperatures in and around Delhi touching 40 degrees Celsius towards the month-end, levels last recorded in 1945.

Such extreme oscillations within a single month – beyond what even the Soothsayer in Julius Caesar would have imagined – has obvious implications for wheat, the country’s second biggest crop after rice.

Farmers sowed a record 31.56 million hectares (mh) under wheat this time, up from 29.25 mh in 2015-16 and the normal area of 30.17 mh. That was largely courtesy a good monsoon, which helped recharge the soil moisture and aquifer levels. The crop’s overall growth — from germination, seedling development and tillering (production of multiple side stems from the initial parent shoot), to earhead emergence, flowering and early grain development — was also excellent, till the spike in temperatures from around March 21.

For the wheat sown by November 15,

the main grain-filling or ‘dough’ stage happens roughly after 120 days. During this phase from mid-March that can extend to 15 days — when starch matter from the leaves, stems and earhead gets transported and accumulates in the kernels — day temperatures should ideally be in the early-thirty degrees range. Once that’s over, the normal heat build-up from April dries up the moisture, making the grain hard and ripe for harvesting.