These moves are meant to address Delhi’s age-old problem of traffic and worsening air quality. But while some have welcomed the measures as answers to the burgeoning issues, many remain sceptical – does Delhi have the required infrastructure to convert these plans into action?

Business Standard takes a look at some of the key paradigms of public transport and environment to assess the city’s preparedness.

Public transport system

According to Delhi Traffic Police data, there are about ten million registered vehicles in the city, including nearly 125,000 autorickshaws, 10,000 taxis and 5,000 local buses. An average 540,000 vehicles are registered in the city annually.

The city government has said Delhi Metro will run on full capacity during the trial period when the odd-even arrangement will be in force. With its expanding route map, the metro system today carries a large part of the city’s daily commuters.

According to data provided by Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC), an average 300 passengers can be accommodated in each coach of a metro train. That implies 2,400 passengers can travel in an eight-coach train. The total number of trains running per day depends on traffic and requirement. Usually, during high demand, additional trains are run and more personnel deployed. For record, the highest number of passengers carried by Delhi Metro in a day has been 3.18 million, on August 28 this year.

By comparison, Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) buses at present have the capacity to carry up to four million passengers on a busy day – considerably lower than their record of 5.5 million in 2010-11, when DTC had a fleet of 6,000 buses. It currently has a fleet of 4,500 (1,000 less than the total number of sanctioned vehicles). The ideal capacity of each low-floor DTC bus is 54 passengers – seated and standing, including the driver and the helper.

Among other major means of public transport in the city, there are yellow-green autorickshaws. These do not fare very well in taking load, going by the numbers. Last year, the Delhi government had sought the Supreme Court’s permission to add 200,000 autorickshaws to the existing fleet, saying Delhi had the lowest autorickshaw-to-population ratio among the metro cities. With only 100,000 three-wheelers for a 16.3-million population, the ratio comes to one vehicle per 163 people. By comparison, Mumbai had a ratio of one vehicle per 75 people for a population of 18.4 million. Bengaluru, with a population of 8.5 million had the best ratio – one vehicle per 56 people.

Reinforcements brought in

In a prompt move to enhance public transport options, the Delhi government recently announced 6,000 new buses would be added to the existing DTC fleet on a contract basis. DTC spokesperson R S Minhas told Business Standard that the registration of these contract carriages had begun since Thursday from Millennium Bus Depot in the city.

Asked about the process and cost involved, Minhas said that any operator wishing to lend buses for the DTC fleet could register. Under the contract, DTC would pay the operator Rs 42 per km for each bus. While DTC would provide conductors for these buses, the operator would bear the cost of drivers, fuel and maintenance. The schedule and shifts for plying of these buses would be decided by DTC. According to Minhas, the cost for running a DTC bus comes to Rs 50 per km, including fuel, salaries for the drivers and conductors, maintenance, etc.

DTC currently employs 14,000 conductors and 13,000 bus drivers. Minhas said DTC maintains a bus-to-driver ratio of 2.5, taking into account the weekly offs, and two shifts per personnel. To execute the new contract plan, it will need at least 6,000 more conductors.

Traffic police manpower

A major role in implementing the odd-even scheme, or even a car-free day, will have to be played by the traffic police. According to traffic police data, their current estimated personnel strength stands between 5,000 and 6,000. Of this, according to media reports in October, only around 3,000 personnel were available for day shifts.

Earlier, the entire traffic staff used to be put on day duty, but in view of growing number of road accidents at nights, 40-50 per cent of the personnel have now been shifted to night hours. Given that these cops have to primarily regulate traffic, instead of catching violators, the number of challans issued this year dropped as well – nearly 65 per cent during June-August from the same period last year.

Environmental concerns

According to an apportionment study commissioned by the Delhi government and conducted by IIT Kanpur (quoted by a recent media report), cars contribute less than 10 per cent of particulate matter; the bigger culprit are heavy trucks. Another study conducted by Indiaspend.com seems to confirm this. It says trucks contribute 46 per cent of PM10 and 38 per cent of NOx (nitrogen oxide), while light commercial vehicles account for 28 per cent of PM10 and 13 per cent of NOx in the city’s air. Besides, a major factor for Delhi’s air pollution is its road dust, which contributes nearly 35 per cent of PM2.5, one of the most dangerous forms of airborne particulate matter.

It cannot be denied that addressing the traffic problem becomes the most logical way to start solving the larger pollution puzzle. Earlier, Business Standard had said in a report quoting studies and environment experts that the impact of air pollution on people was the most inimical if they were living or working within 500 metres of the source of pollution. In Delhi, 55 per cent of all people live in a 500-metre radius of traffic-bearing main roads.

Also, according to the Delhi Economic Survey 2014-15, the number of private vehicles has risen 92 per cent over the past 15 years, even with Delhi Metro operational during this period, and the ridership of buses has declined.

Most apportionment studies tend to focus on PM 2.5 and neglect the public health hazard of other pollutants that vehicles emit, such as NOx. Even small amounts of such chemicals in the air are harmful, show studies.

According to an Indiaspend.com report, Delhi’s transport sector emits 12.39 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide (CO2) equivalent. It is followed by Greater Bengaluru (8.61 mt) and Hyderabad (7.81 mt). The transport sector in Hyderabad emits the greatest proportion (56.86 per cent) of greenhouse gas emissions, while Delhi beats Chennai, Kolkata and Mumbai, some cities that also face emissions from shipping.

According to a study, GHG Footprint of Major Cities in India, conducted by the Centre for Ecological Sciences of the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, Delhi’s transport sector contributes 32 per cent to the city’s emission of greenhouse gases, which are responsible for global warming.

Delhi vs Beijing

Delhi is often compared with Beijing for its air pollution and the efforts to fighting it. By 2011-12, Delhi was doing almost as much as Beijing to combat the pollution issue. A study undertaken by Rahul Goel of IIT Delhi with Sarath K Guttikunda of IIT Mumbai confirmed this, according to an earlier Business Standard report. The study concluded: “The most reduction in emissions between 1998 and 2012 occurred as a result of implementation of four sets of vehicular emission standards – removal of lead (in fuels), reduction of sulphur content, mandatory retirement of older commercial vehicles, and conversion of diesel- and petrol-run public transport vehicles to compressed natural gas.” This coincided with the introduction of CNG buses. However, the city seemed to have lost the plot with the 2010 Commonwealth games, and the construction and traffic boom it brought with itself.

When Beijing’s air was seen reaching hazardous levels for three straight days earlier this month, the government there issued a smog red alert. Within hours, the Agence France Presse reported, half the city’s cars were off the road, schools were closed, and construction sites were shut down. Less than three days later, pollution levels had dropped by 30 per cent.