Carbon space refers to the amount of carbon that can be released into the atmosphere by 2100 so that the rise in global temperature can be capped at 2 degree Celsius. It is set at 1,000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2eq).

The CEEW analysis said that cumulative emissions (between 2015 and 2030) of China, EU and the US, under their voluntary pledges, would be 168, 50 and 70 GtCO2eq. Thus, of the total carbon space of 1,000 Gt-CO2eq left for the world between 2015-2100, these three alone will corner 28% before 2030.

The analysis by CEEW, an India-based think-tank working on energy and climate issues, implies little global carbon space will be left for the rest of the world because the largest historical emitters will continue emitting greenhouse gases.

At the same time, India, according to a Civil Society Equity Review analysis, has committed to higher mitigation than its fair share.

India’s cumulative emissions between 2015 and 2030 will be around 58-64 GtCO2eq depending on the growth rate. India’s pledge, by mitigating more than its fair share, frees up carbon space for other countries.

The CEEW analysis reveals that despite the positive impact of the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), the global emissions gap is 7-10.5 GtCO2eq in 2030, which is a big shortfall in global effort.

INDCs are voluntary pledges that countries across the world have announced. On their basis, over 190 countries at the ongoing Paris climate summit are trying to reach a new global climate agreement and keep global temperature rise in check, below 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

One of the main demands of the developing countries at the summit is that the rich and developed world should leave enough space for the developing and poor nations to grow.

India, often labelled obstructionist at climate summits, has repeatedly voiced concern about not being allowed to have enough carbon space to grow. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked the developed world to keep a check on its lifestyle and leave enough carbon space for the developing economies.

“Negative emissions technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are likely to play a crucial role for climate change mitigation in the coming decades. Climate change adaptation also needs to be central to any climate deal likely to be signed in Paris later this week,” the CEEW’s analysis added.

Environment minister Prakash Javadekar, who is leading India at the Paris climate change summit, has demanded that the developed world vacate carbon space to accommodate developing nations like India.

Arunabha Ghosh, chief executive at CEEW, said: “Countries need to start thinking right now about allocating carbon space based on principles of historical responsibility and economic capabilities. India, with its ambitious renewable energy goals, has already committed to higher mitigation than its fair share, in effect freeing up carbon space for other developing countries.”