New Delhi: There is “clear and compelling” evidence that rising emissions of greenhouse gases will cause dramatic changes in the Himalayas’ Mount Everest region in the next few decades with glaciers melting almost completely by the start of the next century, a group of geologists said in a study published on Wednesday.

The research was conducted by a team of researchers in from Nepal, France and the Netherlands and published in The Cryosphere, a journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU).

The researchers held that the Everest’s glaciers could be very sensitive to future warming and that sustained ice loss through the 21st century is likely.

The team studied glaciers in the Dudh Kosi basin in the Nepal Himalayas, which is home to some of the world’s highest mountain peaks, including Mount Everest, and to over 400 sq. km of glaciers.

“The signal of future glacier change in the region is clear: continued and possibly accelerated mass loss from glaciers is likely given the projected increase in temperatures,” said Joseph Shea, a glacier hydrologist at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) at Kathmandu and lead author of the study.

The research, however, said results depend on how much greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and its effect on temperature, snowfall and rainfall in the area.

Nevertheless, “the signal of future glacier change in the region is clear and compelling,” they stressed, adding that decreases in ice thickness and extent are expected for “even the most conservative climate change scenario.”

The model used by Shea and his team showed glacier volumes in the region could shrink by between 70% and 99% by 2100, a far grimmer prediction than those made in previous studies.

To study how glaciers in the region will evolve, the team used field observations and data from local weather stations. “Our results indicate that these glaciers may be highly sensitive to changes in temperature, and that increases in precipitation are not enough to offset the increased melt,” Shea said. “Apart from the significance of the region, glaciers in the Dudh Kosi basin contribute meltwater to the Kosi River, and glacier changes will affect river flows downstream.”

Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia have the largest volume of ice outside the polar regions.

The research also noted that increased temperatures will not only raise the rates of snow and ice melt, but can also result in a change of precipitation from snow to rain at critical elevations, where glaciers are concentrated. “Together, these act to reduce glacier growth and increase the area exposed to melt,” the study added.

Changes in glacier volume can also affect the availability of water, and in turn affect agriculture and hydropower generation.

Study co-author Walter Immerzeel of Utrecht University of Netherlands drew attention to the freezing level, the elevation where mean monthly temperatures are 0°C. “The freezing level currently varies between 3,200m in January and 5,500m in August. Based on historical temperature measurements and projected warming to the year 2100, this could increase by 800-1200m. Such an increase would not only reduce snow accumulations over the glaciers, but would also expose over 90% of the current glacierized area to melt in the warmer months,” he said.