Climate models, analyzed by experts, predict that India will be hit more and more by extreme rainfall events in future and J&K is certainly among the most vulnerable ones due to impact of global warming on Himalayan glaciers.

An analysis of the current situation by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) — a leading research and advocacy group — on Wednesday presented a grim picture, highlighting how the state has become quite more vulnerable due to unplanned urbanization that virtually blocked almost all natural courses of rivers.

The CSE that referred to various scientific reports and remote sensing maps said the current situation in J&K could very well be another manifestation of an extreme weather event, induced by a changing climate.

"It is a combination of an intense and unprecedented rainfall event combined with mismanagement (of natural drainage) and unplanned urbanization and lack of preparedness," said SunitaNarain, CSE director general, while seeking to remind the government and policy-makers of impact of climate change.

The CSE researchers have compiled a list of extreme events that hit India in the past 10 years. These include the Mumbai floods of 2005, the Leh cloudburst of 2010 and the Uttarakhand floods of 2013.

"The Kashmir floods are a grim reminder that climate change is now hitting India harder. In the last 10 years, several extreme rainfall events have rocked the country, and this is the latest calamity in that series," said Chandra Bhushan, CSE deputy director general and the head of its climate change team.

Referring to J&K, the group pointed out that more than 50% of the lakes, ponds and wetlands of Srinagar have been encroached upon for constructing buildings and roads in the past 100 years. It also noted that the banks of the Jhelum river have been taken over in a similar manner, vastly reducing the river's drainage capacity.

The tragedy in J&K, said Bhushan, was that the state has not been prepared to handle such extreme rainfall events. "In fact, J&K does not have a flood forecasting system. Its disaster management system is also rudimentary", he rued.

Urging the government to start internalizing climate change adaptation in all developmental policies, Narain said, "The government must discard its ostrich-like policy and get out of its (climate) denial mode. We will have to see the linkages between climate change and the events such as those unfolding in J&K. We will have to accept that climate change is going to affect us more and more in the future. We will, therefore, have to start preparing to adapt to the changing climate."

The CSE in its findings took note of the latest analysis by the UN's IPCC Assessment Report that categorically said that floods and droughts are likely to increase in India and the country will get more rainfall but in lesser number of rainy days. The report also predicted increase in extreme precipitation during monsoons.

It also took note of the IPCC's 2011 Special Report on "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation" that presented projections for the period 2071-2100. It pointed out increasing incidents of more frequent and intense heavy precipitation over most regions.

As far as India is concerned, heavy and very heavy rainfall events has increased over the past 50-60 years. A study done by B N Goswami of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, shows that between 1950 and 2000, the incidence of heavy rainfall events ( 100 mm/day) and very heavy events (150 mm/day) have increased and moderate events (5-100 mm/day) have decreased.

"Most climate models also predict that India will be hit more and more by extreme rainfall events as the world continues to warm in the coming decades", said the CSE.