The unusually cool and rainy weather currently prevailing in the north is raising concerns about potato and sugar production while mustard and wheat harvests, which were earlier headed for a record, would be lower. To make matters worse, the dreaded El Nino phenomenon, in which changes in temperature in the Pacific Ocean disrupt global weather patterns including Indian monsoon, seems more likely than earlier forecasts.

The bad news is that unusual weather conditions are casting a shadow on farm output and winter tourism in snowy regions as the erratic weather changes are not predictable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events is rising.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, however, says it is difficult to link any single season or event to climate change. "Hence, we are likely to see such events occurring more often and with greater intensity due to climate change in the future," IPCC Chairman RK Pachauri told ET.

Ajit Tyagi, at the ministry of earth sciences, says such phenomena need to be studied. "While the current weather events may be a part of the natural cycle, it is possible that these are being aggravated because of climate change, which, as climate scientists have said with increasing certainty, is due to human activity."

So what can Indians expect next? To start with, "you will still have to take a hot water bath after Holi", said a meteorologist, referring to the general expectation that summer sets in after the festival, and the current forecasts of snow in the Himalayan states in the days ahead. "Rainfall will continue across north-west India and gradually the temperature will increase by April-May," said DS Pai, director (long-range forecast), India Meteorological Department.

"The winter coldwave this year is much colder than normal. Abnormal winter rainfall has covered Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and other states," Pai said. Parts of Uttar Pradesh are still reporting a minimum temperature of 8 degrees Celsius, the level usually seen in January or early February.

Ladakh andPoonch saw a deficit of over 60% in precipitation this season but snowfall was excessive in Shimla, Kullu and Mandi, which is good news for apple orchards. However, other crops would suffer.

Harvests are being delayed by one or two weeks while parts of the crop have been damaged. Mustard crop across nearly 25,000 hectare has been damaged by rain in Rajasthan and parts of Haryana. "We were looking at a bumper crop of 8 million tonnes this year. Now, we should be closer to previous year's production figure of 7.82 million tonnes," said Dhiraj Singh, director of the mustard and rapeseed research institute in Rajasthan.

Farmers had tostall harvesting of chana across Maharashtra. "More than 1.08 lakh hectare under pulses has been damaged in Maharashtra," said a pulses trader from Mumbai. Chana, which was selling 10% below the minimum support price of Rs 3,100 per quintal a fortnight ago in mandis, has now crossed that level.

Last week, the Indian Sugar Mills Association scaled down its sugar production estimate to 23.8 million tonnes, from 25 million tonnes, for this season. "Due consideration has been given to weather conditions prevailing in the past several months, including heavy rainfall in certain parts of UP as well as availability of water in Maharashtra and north Karnataka and scarcity of water in Tamil Nadu," it said.

The wheat crop is expected to be 1-2 million tonnes less than previous estimates. Output is now expected to be close to 93 million tonnes, despite higher area under cultivation. The crop has been sown over 31.5 million hectare this year, compared with 29.82 million hectare last year.

Crops may suffer much more this summer if the El Nino phenomenon disrupts monsoon rains as it often, but not always, does. The phenomenon is watched globally as it causes excess rain in some parts of the world and droughts in others, including South Asia. The Australian weather office had issued an alert that some climate models suggest El Nino will affect the weather this year, but it said forecasts made at this time of the year are not very accurate.

Last month, the Japan Meteorological Agency said there was a 50% chance that an El Nino would set in this summer. On Monday, the agency said the probability of the phenomenon had increased. (With inputs from Shreya Jai in New Delhi and Jayashree Bhosale in Pune)