MUMBAI: Is climate change responsible for the hail storms and unseasonal rainfall in parts of Maharashtra? Or is it a one-off phenomenon?

The South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP) on Tuesday described it as "unprecedented."

Hailstorms by the end of February 2014, initially thought of as a one-off phenomenon, continued to batter places like Solapur for nearly two weeks now. Rabi crops like wheat, harbhara, cotton, jowar, summer onion are lost, horticultural crops like papaya, sweet lime, grapes are battered and orchards which took years to grow are ridden to the ground. For many farmers the tragedy is unbearable as majority of crops were about to be harvested. Turmeric was drying in the sun, grapes were waiting to be graded, wheat was harvested and lying in the fields.

According to a preliminary estimate, crops over 12 lakh hectares have been severely affected, thousands of livestock, animals and birds have succumbed to injuries and diseases, which threaten to spread. Around 21 people have lost their lives to the disaster.

But is it also truly unexpected? Is climate change an unknown phenomenon to us? "IPCC has predicted that in peninsular India, rainfall patterns will become more and more erratic, with a possible decrease in overall rainfall, but an increase in extreme weather events. What we are witnessing is certainly an extreme weather event," said SANDRP.

The hailstorms developed as a response to hot, damp air from the Bay of Bengal as well as Arabian Sea, rising and meeting the cold air coming south from the Himalayas, which led to formation of huge hail. "This, though, is a very preliminary understanding of the phenomenon and hopefully, a clearer picture will arise in some time," it said.

SANDRP compared this rainfall with the 1901-2002 district wise rainfall dataset of IMD available at India Water Portal. 208mm rainfall in Madha in March 2014 is 771.79% higher than the highest recorded monthly district rainfall for Solapur district for the entire month of March in 100 years between 1901-2002. The highest total recorded rainfall of March for the district was 26.95mm in 1915. Similarly, 65mm rainfall received by the Ausa Taluka in Latur is 146% higher than the highest 100 year recorded March rainfall of the district in 1944. Similar is the case with Parbhani, Akola, Wardha, etc.

"That climate change is happening and that the reasons are anthropological is beyond debate. Unfortunately, climate change, its scientific status, its impacts, adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the changing climate do not enter discussions in functioning of Maharashtra government with any seriousness. Being a fuzzy, global phenomenon, linking climate change to singular events is difficult, though climate scientists are unanimous that there is footprint of climate change in each such extreme weather event," it added.

Significantly, there are studies that claim that Marathwada and other regions of Maharashtra are vulnerable to climate change.

A formal contract was signed between the Government of Maharashtra and TERI in March 2010 and TERI was supposed to submit a complete report in two years, i.e., by March 2011. "However, Maharashtra still does not have a state action plan, indicating its lack of seriousness about climate change and vulnerable communities," said SANDRP.