Earth sciences secretary blames Uttarakhand rains on climate change

The Times of India , Saturday, June 22, 2013
Correspondent : Rajeev Deshpande

NEW DELHI: The catastrophic rainfall in Uttarakhand was most likely a climate change event as it is in keeping with a pattern of increasing incidents of extreme weather events that often cause phenomenal damage as was seen in the hill state, earth sciences secretary Shailesh Nayak said.

Nayak told TOI on Friday that although "direct evidence" was lacking, the cloudburst that triggered flash floods in Uttarakhand read like a weather phenomenon brought about by warming. "Extreme weather is becoming more common, the June 17 rains might be read in the context of climate change," he said.

Nayak is the first senior figure in government with scientific credentials to suggest climate change as the possible reason for the torrential rains even though a debate has been raging over the past week with some experts pointing to global warming while others saying more evidence was needed.

Pointing to frequent extreme weather, Nayak said the hill station of Mahabaleshwar near Mumbai recorded rainfall of 19 inches around the same time as the Uttarakhand rains. The Western Ghat rains were not as severe and a lot less damaging but were certainly unusual.

Despite the danger of every instance of extreme weather being tagged as climate change, Nayak pointed to an emerging pattern. "We are definitely seeing a decrease in low and moderate events and although we are still scanning the evidence, climate change cannot be ruled out as a cause," he said.

Admitting forecasters and weather analysts failed to predict the intensity of the downpour - some experts would suggest climate change can be a red herring - Nayak said India was still developing expertise needed to understand extreme weather while improving observational data.

The rise in incidence of weather events like high intensity rainfall, whether a result of climate change or just a confluence of atmospheric conditions, is posing new challenges to forecasters as well as for the management of water resources.

Despite the Met's increasing accuracy in short term forecasting and as well as in its overall reading for the four-month Indian monsoon, variations can prove unsettling. "You can get spurts of intense rains where water just flows away. Ground water does not get recharged and agriculture does not benefit," Nayak said.

This can mean that although the total quantum of rainfall is in the range predicted by the ministry's weather models and the Indian Meteorological Department, the monsoon can be excessively concentrated in some areas. The rainfall recorded to date in northwest India accounts for a significant percent of precipitation predicted for June.

Any effort to improve forecasting of weather events like the one that ravaged Uttarakhand's valleys need advanced computational capabilities. India is making progress in these areas and some of the high powered facilities will be operational soon. The high speed computers will ingest 30-40 years of weather data to test validity of programmes and models Indian scientists are developing.

 
SOURCE : http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-06-22/india/40133596_1_climate-change-weather-events-weather-data
 


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