THE Earth and its resources have been under constant stress ever since the start of industrialisation over 200 years ago. The burning of fossil fuels has led to an enormous increase in carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, forcing a rapid change in Earth’s climate. To top it all, forests are being cleared to make way for human habitations and agriculture. Also, rise in population and rapid pace of development are eating into natural resources, which at the present rate of consumption only make these unsustainable.
Poor and developing nations, which contribute the least to climate change, suffer more in terms of death and disease brought about by higher temperatures, whereas developed nations that have cumulatively created higher concentration of emissions suffer the least.
The science of how human intervention is causing irretrievable damage to the planet is incontrovertible. During the Doha climate summit in December 2012, developed and developing nations bickered over who is to do what. After the deliberations, delegates only agreed to talk but not act.
Some past events
Global warming contributes to more than 1.5 lakh deaths and 50 lakh illnesses annually and these numbers are only set to rise in the future. Heat waves have already killed tens of thousands of people during 2003 in Europe; caused extreme droughts in the US and Australia; major floods and tropical cyclones in China and India; extensive fires in Indonesia; and extreme flood and droughts in Africa.
The Philippines has been hit by 17 typhoons over the past one year. Scientists attribute this to the impact of climate change. Hurricane Sandy — the largest ever storm to hit the US during October 2012 — with sustained wind speeds of 135 kmph resulted in halting of the transit system, closure of offices, schools and colleges besides rain, tidal wave surges and floods.
The Global Burden of Disease Study-2010, published by British medical journal The Lancet on December 13, 2012, suggests a fivefold increase in human mortality caused by climate change since 1970.
Events likely to happen
The Earth has warmed by around 0.75% since pre-industrial times. The last decade was recorded as the warmest globally and 2010 has turned out to be the warmest ever recorded in history. At the current rate of emissions, warming in this century is projected between 1.4 and 5.8 OC.
Higher temperatures lead to increase in heat waves, flooding caused by melting of glaciers, droughts and disasters, spread of infectious diseases, change in production of food and agricultural patterns, scarcity of water for drinking and irrigation, etc.
Heat waves cause increased spread of infections usually carried by mosquitoes in warmer and wetter weather conditions. Droughts enhance water-borne diseases such as cholera and severe diarrhoea by wiping out supplies of safe drinking water.
Millions of people depend upon mountain water for drinking and irrigation. Global warming initially threatens to cause extensive flooding, but by 2030 fresh water availability is set to fall short of the demand. Over-drawing of water and falling groundwater levels on the one side and low yields and poor storage and transport facilities on the other, the already plagued agricultural sector may be in for rough times in India, where higher yields are essential to keep pace with the growing population.
On account of higher global temperatures, sea levels have risen over the years slowly threatening low-lying islands like the Maldives and Lakshadweep.
Carbon dissolving in oceans forms carbonic acid, raising water acidity. Oceans will be 150% more acidic by 2050, thereby threatening food chain supporting marine. There is a great possibility of an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer months if global temperature rises by more than 2 OC over the current levels. Changes in the polar sea cap can alter life on the Earth for the worse with more frequent hot spells unless the annual rate of gas emissions is halted or even reversed.
What must be done
The effects of global warming are most certainly not going to be mild. There are going to be changes in weather, economics, eco-systems, agriculture, rise in water levels of oceans and more importantly changes that in most probability will be irreversible.
The challenge is for all individuals, NGOs, communities, governments, etc. We must avoid wastage of food, water, electricity and use vehicles judiciously. Governments across the globe and business and financial institutions have to be involved actively to limit carbon emissions.
None of us should argue that there is nothing one can usefully do. As Edmund Burke said: “No one made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do little”.
