NO CHEAP SOLUTIONS

BUSINESS STANDARDS , Friday, May 07, 2010
Correspondent : Sunita Narain
Last night, I asked: Is India rich enough to pay for the cost of transition to a low-carbon economy? I asked this in the context of the current moves in international climate-change negotiations, which demand that countries like India, till now seen as victims of the carbon excesses of the industrialized countries, must take full responsibility to reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. The US-sponsored and India-supported Copenhagen Accord rejects the notion of historical responsibility for the problem of climate change. This radically, and irretrievably, changes the global framework of action. No longer does the industrialised world have to first cut down on emissions to make space for countries like India to grow. No longer does the industrialised world have to pay for our efforts to avoid the growth of emissions.

So, can India reduce emissions at its own cost? My colleague Chandra Bhushan has just released a report titled “Challenge of the new balance”, which deals with this question. It takes into account six of the most energy-intensive sectors, in terms of emission profile today, and looks at the technology pathway for the future. These high-growth sectors — power, steel, aluminium, cement, paper and fertiliser — add up to 60 per cent of India’s carbon dioxide emissions currently. The study finds answers that demand careful rethinking, not just in India, but globally, about how emissions will be cut, really and actually.

It finds that contrary to general perception, many Indian industrial sectors (and companies) operate at global best levels as far as energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions are concerned. India’s cement industry, for instance, already has the lowest emissions in the world because of its use of fly ash and slag. Even the much abused coal-based power generation sector does not do so badly in its emission record. The study also finds that the industry has invested in better and the best technologies, because in India energy costs are high. This is not to say that more cannot be done to improve performance. But, it also means that India is not the place where the world can look for easy and cheap emission reductions for the future.

In fact, based on current policies and technologies, Indian industry is well on track to meet India’s current “commitment” — 20-25 per cent reduction in the emission intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020. This is chicken feed. It is about picking up low-hanging options, which will cost, but not enough to stop reducing emission levels.

The tough part is what begins now for the future. The fact is that in all high-polluting sectors, technology options for emission reduction will be stagnant after 2020. There is no real way India can reduce emissions, without impacting growth as we know it, once it crosses the current emission-efficiency technology threshold. This is the real climate challenge.

The only real option to reduce emissions is to change the fuel mix of energy, which drives economy. But even this is theoretical. The options are limited and what exists involves a very high cost. If India wants to reduce its use of coal, it must invest big time in solar or biomass or off-shore wind. All this put together, all done and all money spent, it will still not be able to substantially reduce its dependence on coal. This is even after the study factors in the use of clean coal technology or switching to gas. And remember, India already faces the challenge to provide affordable power to a huge number of people. So the bottom line is that the going is tough.

But this only means that India is no different from the rest of the world. In fact, it is at the bottom of the development trajectory — it has a long way to go to meet its growth needs and the way ahead will only add to pollution. It is inevitable. It will need the ecological space to increase its emissions. But the problem is that the world has decided that it will not share growth — the rich will not reduce and make space for late entrants like India to first emit and then clean up.

The hard truth is that the options for serious emission reduction are limited in the industrial model India belongs to or wants to inherit. The world has to look for new ways to cut emissions and pay big time for these. There are win-win options, but only if we consider that in all current options the planet is losing.

This new growth model will need changes in behaviour and lifestyle, to cut emissions. It will need new drivers to stimulate quick and aggressive technology innovation. It will require changes to take the world much beyond the known and the ordinary. This change will not come cheap.

This is the most inconvenient of all truths. And this is precisely why the rich world wants to spin a deal, built not on its commitment to reduce emissions, but on the bribe that the developing world can also continue to emit. This is not good for climate change. It is devastating for us. The study shows us why.

 
SOURCE : http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/sunita-narain-no-cheap-solutions/394045/
 


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